[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290551 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the
coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 04N20W 02N27W 02N37W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to
06N between 30W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 03N to 07N between 09W and 18W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a coastal North Carolina 1029 mb high
pressure center, through the Florida Panhandle, to the upper Texas
Gulf coast. Areas of broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are in the eastern two-thirds of the northern
Gulf, and in the SE corner of the Gulf.

Fresh to strong return flow is in the Gulf of Mexico from 93W
westward. Gentle to moderate winds are  elsewhere. The sea heights
range from 2 feet to 5 feet.

Weak high pressure ridging over the eastern half of the Gulf is
sliding eastward and dissipating tonight. This is allowing for fresh
to strong southerly winds to set up in the western Gulf. Winds will
diminish by Fri as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf coast.
Elsewhere, moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf
will become mostly fresh Thu and fresh to strong southeast on Fri.
The weak cold front should stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico Mexico
late Fri night, then dissipate into Sat night. Gentle to moderate
southerly flow will become established over most of the Gulf Sat
night and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow could
return to the western and central Gulf Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough cuts across the eastern one-
third of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery from 80W eastward.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows that an upper level trough is in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the area of the upper level trough. Rainshowers
are possible in other areas of broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, that are spread throughout the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds are in the Yucatan Channel, and in the south
central sections. Moderate to fresh winds are in the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7
feet across the board in the Caribbean Sea.

Weak surface ridging N of the region will maintain moderate to fresh
winds across the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean
through Thu. Locally strong winds will pulse late tonight S of
Hispaniola and N of Colombia. A cold front north of the basin will
weaken, allowing the ridge north of the region to strengthen. As a
result, trade winds across the central Caribbean will increase to
fresh to strong Thu night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will
likely pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras Fri night.
Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to fresh across the
basin for the weekend. East swell will continue to affect the
tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N62W, to 24N70W. A surface trough
continues from 24N70W, to SE Cuba. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the east and southeast of the
cold front from 24N northward, and within 180 nm to the northeast of
the Bahamas from 24N to 25N between 75W and 76W. The 24-hour
rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended at 29/0000 UTC,
is 1.04 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 32N39W. A 1014 mb low
pressure center is near 21N19W. A surface trough curves away from
the 1014 mb low pressure center, to 20N17W 15N20W 12N29W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the 1014 mb low pressure
center and surface trough, and the western Atlantic Ocean cold
front. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 600 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.

Fresh to locally strong winds are west of the front/trough south of
26N, and gentle to moderate west of the front and north of 26N. Seas
in this area are in the 3-5 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 8-10 ft, are south of 25N east of the front to 50W. Gentle
to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are over these waters north of
25N. East of 50W, Fresh to strong winds cover the waters from 12N to
26N, and moderate to fresh in the remainder of the waters. Seas are
in the 9-12 ft range in the area of strong winds, and 6-9 ft
elsewhere.

A cold front stretches from SE of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos
Islands. This front will weaken as it moves east, slows down, then
dissipates Fri. A surface trough currently connected to the front,
stretching from the Turks and Caicos to eastern Cuba, will drift NW
into Fri, before dissipating. Another cold front is forecast to move
off the Georgia coast Sun. Large E swell east of 68W and south of
25N will slowly subside through Fri.

$$
mt/sk
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