[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through
the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 04N20W 02N27W
02N37W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 04N to 06N between 30W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 03N to 07N between 09W and 18W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a coastal North Carolina 1029 mb
high pressure center, through the Florida Panhandle, to the
upper Texas Gulf coast. Areas of broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and possible rainshowers, are in the eastern two-thirds
of the northern Gulf, and in the SE corner of the Gulf.

Fresh to strong return flow is in the Gulf of Mexico from 93W
westward. Gentle to moderate winds are  elsewhere. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet.

Moderate to fresh winds are from the second surface trough
westward. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 5 feet from the second surface trough
westward, and near the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure ridging over the eastern half of the Gulf is
sliding eastward and dissipating tonight. This is allowing for
fresh to strong southerly winds to set up in the western Gulf.
Winds will diminish by Fri as a weak cold front approaches the
NW Gulf coast. Elsewhere, moderate east to
southeast winds over the eastern Gulf will become mostly fresh
Thu and fresh to strong southeast on Fri. The weak cold front
should stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico Mexico late Fri night,
then
dissipate into Sat night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will
become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow could return to the
western and central Gulf Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough cuts across the eastern
one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 80W eastward.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows that an upper level trough is in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the upper level trough. Rainshowers are possible in
other areas of broken to overcast multilayered clouds, that are
spread throughout the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds are in the Yucatan Channel, and in the
south central sections. Moderate to fresh winds are in the rest
of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 4
feet to 7 feet across the board in the Caribbean Sea.

Weak surface ridging N of the region will maintain moderate to
fresh winds across the eastern, central, and southwestern
Caribbean through Thu. Locally strong winds will pulse late
tonight S of Hispaniola and N of Colombia. A cold front north of
the basin will weaken, allowing the ridge north of the region to
strengthen. As a result, trade winds across the central
Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Thu night through
Fri. Fresh to strong winds will likely pulse in the Windward
Passage and Gulf of Honduras Fri night. Trade winds will
diminish again to moderate to fresh across the basin for the
weekend. East swell will continue to affect the tropical
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N62W, to 24N70W. A surface trough
continues from 24N70W, to SE Cuba.  Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the east and
southeast of the cold front from 24N northward, and within 180
nm to the northeast of the Bahamas from 24N to 25N between 75W
and 76W. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period
that ended at 29/0000 UTC, is 1.04 in Bermuda, according to the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 32N39W. A 1014 mb low
pressure center is near 21N19W. A surface trough curves away
from the 1014 mb low pressure center, to 20N17W 15N20W 12N29W.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the 1014 mb low
pressure center and surface trough, and the western Atlantic
Ocean cold front. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 600 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.

Fresh to locally strong winds are west of the front/trough south of
26N, and gentle to moderate west of the front and north of 26N. Seas
in this area are in the 3-5 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 8-10 ft, are south of 25N east of the front to 50W. Gentle
to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are over these waters north of
25N. East of 50W, Fresh to strong winds cover the waters from 12N to
26N, and moderate to fresh in the remainder of the waters. Seas are
in the 9-12 ft range in the area of strong winds, and 6-9 ft
elsewhere.

A cold front stretches from SE of Bermuda to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. This front will weaken as it moves east, slows
down, then dissipates Fri. A surface trough currently connected
to the front, stretching from the Turks and Caicos to eastern
Cuba, will drift NW into Fri, before dissipating. Another cold
front is forecast to move off the Georgia coast Sun. Large E
swell east of 68W and south of 25N will slowly subside through
Fri.

$$
mt/sk
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