[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N to
03N07W. The ITCZ continues from 03N07W to 04N20W to 04N34W to
01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of
the ITCZ between 24W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 24N96W to 19N94W. Another surface
trough extends S from Louisiana to 26N93W. No convection is
associated with these troughs, but fresh N winds are occurring to
the W of them. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far
SE Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits, in association with another
surface trough that is to the S and E of the Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate and northerly. Seas are 3 to
5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail today. As high pressure weakens and slides
east, southerly return flow will set up tonight. Fresh S winds
will increase to locally strong in the NW Gulf Wed ahead of the
next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection, fresh NE winds, and seas
to 8 ft are all occurring behind this trough. Two other troughs in
the basin are not producing any sensible weather. One of these
troughs extends from from Eastern Cuba to 15N76W, while the other
extends from 18N83W to Panama.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by mainly fresh trades
being enhanced by strong high pressure well NE of the area.
Locally strong NE to E winds are ongoing offshore Colombia. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean into the weekend. This will continue to
provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central,
and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will
persist over NW Colombia offshore waters into tonight. E swell
will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern
Caribbean waters through Thu. A stationary front from central Cuba
to the Gulf of Honduras has devolved into a trough overnight.
There is still some fresh NE winds behind this trough, which will
dissipate tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from just SE of Bermuda, through the
central Bahamas, and into central Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is along and behind this boundary, extending NW up to a
stationary front that extends from 31N74W to just off the Florida
coast. Fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted behind the
trough. Elsewhere N of 25N and W of 65W, gentle to moderate winds
dominate and seas are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere across much of the
basin, fresh to strong trades prevail, enhanced by high pressure
SW of the Azores. Seas are 8 to 13 ft.

A 1010 mb low pressure centered just SW of the Canary Islands and
associated occluded front area leading to broad area of strong
winds from 23N to 33N E of 40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within this area of strong winds. A cold front south of
this low extends from Western Sahara to the Cabo Verde Islands.
The sea heights range from 11 feet to 15 feet within 1000 nm of
the 1010 mb low pressure center in the W semicircle. Sea heights
that range from 16 feet to 19 feet are within 300 nm of the 1010
mb low pressure center in the NW quadrant.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front from Bermuda
through the central Bahamas and into central Cuba has devolved
into a trough overnight. A cold front will move SE today and
replace this surface trough tonight. The combined front will move
E of the area during the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh
winds are expected behind the front. Meanwhile, large swell E of
60W and S of 25N will slowly subside into late week.

$$
KONARIK
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