[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 27N19W. An occluded front
curves away from the low pressure center to 27N18W. A
dissipating stationary front extends from the triple point of
28N17W, beyond 31N16W. A cold front is along 28N17W, to the
coastal plains of the southern sections of the Western Sahara,
to 17N25W in the Cabo Verde Islands. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 30W
eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
the water vapor imagery in the areas of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow. The exception is for the upper level moisture that is
within 200 nm to 330 nm of the 1010 mb low pressure center.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N
northward from 24W eastward, and within 75 nm on either side of
the cold front. The METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of a
gale-force wind warning for the marine zone METEOR from 25N to
30N between 22W and 35W, until 27/1200 UTC. The sea heights
range from 11 feet to 15 feet within 1000 nm of the 1010 mb low
pressure center in the W semicircle. Sea heights that range from
16 feet to 19 feet are within 300 nm of the 1010 mb low pressure
center in the NW quadrant. Please, read the latest high seas
forecast, that is issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the website:
gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N,
to 03N07W. The ITCZ continues from 03N07W, to 05N15W 04N24W
05N30W 02N38W 01N45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 90 nm to 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 28W and 35W, and from 03N southward between 49W and 51W
at the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 02N to 06N between 50W and 52W in the coastal plains and in
the coastal waters of Brazil and French Guiana, and from 06N to
09N between 24W and 28W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
in the remainder of the area from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 24N97W, to 20N95W, to the eastern
sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
second surface trough is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
This trough is associated with a 1022 mb upper Texas Gulf coast
low pressure center. Rainshowers are possible in the western
half of the Gulf of Mexico.

A third surface trough passes through the central Bahamas near
24N76W, through central Cuba near 22N79W, to 19N85W, to northern
Honduras near 15N87W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within
440 nm to the northwest of the NW Caribbean Sea surface trough.

A 1026 mb high pressure center is in southern Georgia. Light to
gentle winds are to the west of the surface troughs, and in the
NE Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the SW corner, and in the
SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 5 feet elsewhere from 25N southward, and from 1 foot to
3 feet from 25N northward.

Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail into Tue night. Fresh S winds will increase to locally
strong in the NW Gulf Wed ahead of the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough passes through 31N64W, to 27N70W, through the
central Bahamas near 24N76W, through central Cuba near 22N79W,
to 19N85W, to northern Honduras near 15N87W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the
line that runs from NE Honduras to the Windward Passage.

Fresh to strong winds are to the west of the surface trough, and
in the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet in the NW
corner, and from 6 feet to 8 feet in the south central Caribbean
Sea. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the
remainder of the area.

Surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern
Caribbean through late week. This will continue to provide
moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central, and
SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will persist
over NW Colombia offshore waters through Tue. E swell will
continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern
Caribbean waters into Thu. A dissipating stationary front
extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with fresh to
strong winds and rough seas behind it. The front will dissipate
by Tue, and winds and seas will slowly improve through late
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
1010 mb low pressure center that is near 27N19W, and for the
gale-force wind conditions that are forecast for the
METEO-FRANCE marine zone METEOR.

A surface trough passes through 31N64W, to 27N70W, through the
central Bahamas near 24N76W, through central Cuba near 22N79W,
to 19N85W, to northern Honduras near 15N87W. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong is
to the northwest of the line that runs from the Windward Passage
beyond 31N56W. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that
range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are from 25N northward from 60W
westward. Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights that range from
7 feet to 10 feet, are from 25N southward from 60W westward. The
24-hour rainfall total in inches for Bermuda is 0.83, ending at
27/0000 UTC.

A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 35N31W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N
northward between the cold front and the surface trough. Fresh
to strong winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 13
feet, are from 22N southward elsewhere from 60W eastward. Fresh
to strong winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 11
feet, are from 22N northward elsewhere from 60W eastward. Gentle
to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6
feet, are from the surface trough northwestward.

A surface trough extends from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N79W. This front will be
reinforced by a cold front midweek, and the combined front will
move east of the area by late this week. Moderate to fresh winds
are expected behind the front. Meanwhile, large swell E of 60W
and S of 25N will slowly subside into late week.

$$
mt/sk
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