[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front is expected to
move off the Texas coast later today. The front will bring
widespread gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas
across most of the basin tonight through Fri. Minimal storm-
force winds are expected Fri afternoon near Veracruz. Gale-force
winds will come to an end by Fri night for most of the basin.
Gale-force winds are expected to continue near Veracruz through
Fri night and possibly Sat and Sun. The 12 ft seas will spread
across nearly all of the Gulf west of 85W with peak seas
approaching 20 ft. Conditions will slowly improve later this
weekend and into early next week.

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge from
the SE United States coast later tonight into early Fri morning.
W to NW gales should occur west of the frontal boundary Fri
morning through Fri afternoon north of 30N west of 74W. Seas may
reach 15 ft on Fri. By Fri night, the gales will move north of
our waters. Strong winds will slowly diminish on Sat and the seas
will gradually subside by Sun.

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1016 mb low pressure area is
positioned near 25N70W. Scattered showers are affecting the
waters north of 23N and between 63W and 72W. Earlier
scatterometer satellite pass show strong to gale-force winds from
24N to 28N and between 66W and 76W. Seas in these waters are 8-12
ft. The low is expected to dissipate this morning and winds will
drop below gale-force by 22/0900 UTC. Seas will drop 8 ft Thu
afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the Gale and Storm Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continue to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N20W to 02N38W to the Brazil coast near 01N50W. Isolated
to scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 07N
between 24W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
on the Storm warning. This front will bring dangerous weather
conditions across the Gulf region tonight through Fri.

The basin is dominated by a ridge located north of the Gulf of
Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. A trough
extends from the Mississippi coast near 30N88W to 23N89W. No
significant convection is associated with it. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds are observed in the NE Gulf, mainly north of
28N and east of 90W. Light to gentle winds and buoys are reporting
seas between 2-3 in the eastern Gulf and 4-6 ft elsewhere across
the basin.

For the forecast, a strong cold front is expected to move off the
Texas coast later this afternoon. The front will bring widespread
gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas across most of
the basin tonight through Fri. Minimal storm- force winds are
expected Fri afternoon near Veracruz. Gale-force winds will come
to an end by Fri night for most of the Gulf with conditions
slowly improving through the weekend and into early next week.
Gale-force winds will continue across Veracruz through Fri night
and likely into Sat and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean
Sea with only isolated weak showers due to a few pockets of
shallow moisture. High pressure north of the area extends
southward into the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in northern South America sustain fresh to
strong easterly breezes across the central Caribbean. Seas in
these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and high seas are
found in the offshore waters of NW Colombia and the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present in the
eastern Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in this region. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the
central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds in the W Caribbean through the weekend. Moderate
long- period N to NE swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic
waters through early next week. A cold front will move into the
NW Caribbean by late Fri into early Sat. The front will reach from
central Cuba to the northern Yucatan by Sat night, stall from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sun night and linger in
this area through early next week. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the two
Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic.

A low pressure area is located off NE Florida, near 30N79W, and a
stationary front extends southward to central Florida. Only a few
showers are near near these features. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh to strong easterly winds north of
28N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 31N79W. Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N30W and continues southwestward to 27N47W, where
it becomes a stationary front that stretches to 24N66W. No deep
convection is noted in association with these boundaries. Moderate
to fresh NE-E winds are found north of the frontal boundaries,
along with seas of 8-14 ft. The highest seas are occurring north
of 26N and east of 60W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong 1032 mb high
pressure system near the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic, especially south of 20N. Seas are 6-9 ft in these
waters. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, refer to the Special Features
section for details on two gale warnings.

$$
AReinhart
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