[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220445
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0444 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1016 mb low pressure area is
positioned near 25N70W. Scattered showers are affecting the
waters north of 24N and between 61W and 71W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show strong to gale-force winds from
24N to 28N and between 66W and 76W. Seas in these waters are 7-10
ft. The low is expected to dissipate later today and winds will
drop below gale-force by 22/0900 UTC. Seas will drop 8 ft Thu
afternoon.

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge from
the SE United States coast Fri morning. W to NW gales should
occur west of the frontal boundary Fri morning through Fri night
north of 30N west of 73W. Seas may reach 15 ft on Fri.  By Sat
morning, the gales will move north of our waters and the seas
will gradually subside.

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front is expected to
move off the Texas coast Thu evening. The front will bring near-
gale to gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas across
most of the basin through Fri. Minimal storm-force winds are
expected Fri afternoon near Veracruz. Gale-force winds will come
to an end by Fri night. 12 ft seas will spread across nearly all
of the Gulf west of 85W with peak seas approaching 20 ft.
Conditions will slowly improve through the upcoming weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details on the Gale and Storm Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continue to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N17W to 04N33W to 02N50W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N to 06N and between 25W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about a strong cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters by
Thu evening. This front will bring dangerous weather conditions
across the gulf region.

A dissipating stationary front extends from SW Florida to near
24N89W. No significant convection is observed near the trough
axis. The rest of the basin is dominated by a ridge located north
of the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are observed in the
NE Gulf, mainly north of 27N and east of 90W. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate by Thu
as the low lifts northward away from the area. Fresh winds west of
the front will gradually diminish tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean
Sea with only isolated weak showers due to a few pockets of
shallow moisture. High pressure north of the area extends
southward into the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in northern South America sustain fresh to
strong easterly breezes across the central Caribbean. Seas in
these waters are 4-8 ft. The strongest winds and high seas are
found in the offshore waters of NW Colombia and the Gulf of
Venezuela. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate to
fresh easterly winds are present in the eastern Caribbean. Seas
are 3-6 ft in this region. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3
ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will support
pulsing fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and
SW Caribbean through the remainder of the week and upcoming
weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean
with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Moderate long-
period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical
Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move
into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri and reach from central Cuba
to Belize by Sat night, dissipating from eastern Cuba to eastern
Honduras Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will
follow the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the two
Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic.

A low pressure area is located off NE Florida, near 30N79W, and a
stationary front extends southward to central Florida. Only a few
showers are near near these features. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate fresh to strong easterly winds north of
28N and west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 31N79W. Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N30W and continues southwestward to 27N47W, where
it becomes a stationary front that stretches to 24N66W. No deep
convection is noted in association with these boundaries. Moderate
to fresh NE-E winds are found north of the frontal boundaries,
along with seas of 8-14 ft. The highest seas are occurring north
of 26N and east of 60W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong 1032 mb high
pressure system near the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic, especially south of 20N. Seas are 6-9 ft in these
waters. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, refer to the Special Features
section for details on two gale warnings.

$$
DELGADO
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