[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean METEO-FRANCE Gale-force Wind Warning: A
1015 mb low pressure center is off the coast of NW Spain. The
surface pressure gradient is tight, between the area of the NW
Spain low pressure center and the METEO-FRANCE marine zones. The
METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of gale-force winds, until at
least 18/0000 UTC, in the NW part of the IRVING marine area,
which covers the waters that are from 30N to 35N between 22W and
35W. The outlook period, which covers the next 24 hours that are
after the initial 36-hour long forecast period, consists of: the
persistence of cyclonic near gale or gale-force winds from 30N
northward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the website: gmdss.org/II.html, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 04N27W to
00N35W to 01S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 06N between 12W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N86W to north of Veracruz, Mexico near 21N97W.
Scatterometer data from earlier this morning showed gale-force
winds near Tampico, Mexico which were short-lived. However, strong
to near gale force winds continue north and west of the front with
seas 8-11 ft. Ahead of the front, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted in the central and eastern Gulf from
23N to 28N between 81W and 94W. A trough extends from the Straits
of Florida to north of the Yucatan from 24N81W to 21N91W. Gentle
to moderate winds are noted in the eastern Gulf westward to the
southern Bay of Campeche. Seas range 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, by early Sun, the cold front will reach from
Tampa Bay, Florida to off Pozo Rico, Mexico then southward to
Veracruz, Mexico. The front will sweep southward across the
eastern Gulf into the Florida Straits by early Mon, but lift
northward over the western Gulf ahead of low pressure moving
through northeast Mexico. The front may lift northward early Tue
as a warm front while the low pressure moves into the north-
central Gulf. A trailing front over the western Gulf will
dissipate through mid week. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front
may move off the Texas coast into the far northwest Gulf Thu night
followed by near-gale or gale force winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the coast of northern
Honduras, otherwise no significant convection is occurring across
the Caribbean at this time. The combination of high pressure
north of the area with low pressure over Colombia is giving way to
fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean and Gulf
of Venezuela. Seas range 8-10 ft in the south-southwest Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail in the eastern Caribbean
with seas to 7 ft. In the northwestern Caribbean, light to gentle
winds prevail with seas ranging 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through at least Wed night, reaching near-gale
off Colombia tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W
Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE swell will continue to move
into the tropical Atlantic and through the Anegada Passage into
the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A cold front
will dissipate as it pushes into the Yucatan Channel Sun night
into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds that are in the NW part of the METEO-FRANCE
marine section IRVING.

A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N62W
through the northern Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida near
24N80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm
of the front, with thunderstorms moving over the northern Bahamas
this evening. Light to gentle winds are noted north of the front
with 8-10 ft seas N of 29N and W of 71W. Seas range 3-6 ft W of
68W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front
N of 29N and E of 60W.

A 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the central Atlantic near
25N58W. A cold front extends from 31N30W to 23N41W to 20N58W.
Fresh westerly winds are behind the front N of 29N and fresh to
strong SW winds are ahead of the front, N of 27N. A large area of
swell is noted across the central Atlantic in combination of the
two fronts. Seas ranging from 12-19 ft is N of 18N between 23W and
53W. The 8 ft seas extends from 07N to 31N between 20W and 71W.
This swell is impacting the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico/USVI and
the Lesser Antilles.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern Atlantic with
seas 6-8 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front from 31N60W to the northern
Bahamas will move little before stalling later tonight and
dissipating Sun. A stronger cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to northwest Cuba by
Sun night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night before
starting to weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through
Tue. Meanwhile, large long- period N to NE swell will continue to
affect the NE half of the area for the next several days. Looking
ahead, low pressure may move along the front from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the
northern Bahamas Wed while dissipating. Winds will become more
southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast Fri.

$$
AReinhart
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