[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean METEO-FRANCE Gale-force Wind Warning: A
1015 mb low pressure center is off the coast of NW Spain. The
surface pressure gradient is tight, between the area of the NW
Spain low pressure center and the METEO-FRANCE marine zones. The
METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of gale-force winds, until at
least 18/0000 UTC, in the NW part of the IRVING marine area,
which covers the waters that are from 30N to 35N between 22W and
35W. The outlook period, which covers the next 24 hours that are
after the initial 36-hour long forecast period, consists of: the
persistence of cyclonic near gale or gale-force winds from 30N
northward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the website: gmdss.org/II.html, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to
05N25W, crossing the Equator along 36W, to 01S42W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 360 nm off the coast of South America between 45W and
60W, and from 04N to 06N between 29W and 36W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere in general from 10N southward
from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high
level moisture northeastward, from 10N to 25N from 54W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of NE Mexico, and inland.
The southwestern end of an Atlantic Ocean cold front reaches the
Straits of Florida. A surface trough continues from the Straits
of Florida, through the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the coastal waters
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is from 22N
northward. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds, and sea heights that
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are from the Straits of Florida
surface trough to 26N from 90W eastward. Fresh to strong N
winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are
from the Gulf of Mexico cold front northward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow/high pressure is to the
east of the Gulf of Mexico cold front, and to the north and
northwest of the cold front, in the U.S.A.

Mainly gentle to moderate easterly winds, and sea heights that
range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the remainder of the area.
The exception is light and variable winds that are in the SW
Gulf near Veracruz in Mexico.

A cold front reaching from near Pensacola, Florida to south of
Brownsville, Texas will shift southeast through Sun with
possible low pressure developing out ahead of it and moving
east. The front will mainly stall along the far southeast Gulf
Sun night, except for the western portion which will extend from
near Brownsville, Texas to the western Yucatan Peninsula.
Looking ahead, the western portion of the front will shift
northward across the western Gulf late Mon and Tue while weak
low pressure moves into the northwest Gulf. The low pressure
will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through mid week,
with a trailing cold front moving across the western and central
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the northern half to
the northern two-thirds of the area. A 1019 mb Atlantic Ocean
high pressure center is near 26N60W. The combination of this
high pressure center, and comparatively lower surface pressures
in Colombia, is helping to continue to support fresh to strong
trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 10 feet,
in the central sections, including in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere. The exception is
for gentle to moderate in the areas that are from 20N northward.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are locally higher through
Atlantic Ocean passages due to prolonged NE swell, and they
range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
northern Caribbean Sea from 20N northward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, beyond 08N81W in
Panama, and into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from
Colombia westward. Scattered to numerous strong is on the
southern side of the monsoon trough, from 05N to 07N from 81W
eastward, in the Pacific Ocean.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, during the period that
ended at 16/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, are: 0.11 in Freeport in the Bahamas.

Surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to
strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean
Sea through at least Wed night, reaching near-gale off Colombia
tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the E
Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean.
Large, long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the
tropical Atlantic and through the Anegada Passage into the
northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A cold front
will dissipate as it pushes into the Yucatan Channel Sun night
into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds that are in the NW part of the METEO-FRANCE
marine section IRVING.

A cold front passes through 31N32W to 25N40W 21N50W 21N69W. This
front is associated with 978 mb of low pressure that is to the
north of the area between 30W and 40W just to the north of 40N.
The sea heights range from 16 feet to 23 feet to the north of
the line that passes through 31N28W 24N40W.
The sea heights range from 12 feet to 16 feet to the north of
the line that passes through 31N25W 20N41W. The sea heights
range from 10 feet to 14 feet from 19N northward between 40W and
60W. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 4 feet from Cuba
northward from the Bahamas westward. The sea heights in general
range from 6 feet to 9 feet elsewhere from 04N northward. The
sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that
is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate,
and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 180 nm to the
east of the cold front from 26N northward from 35W eastward.

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N64W, to
28N70W, through Andros Island in the
Bahamas, to the Straits of Florida. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 150 nm on either side of
the cold front. Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights that have
been ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, have been from 29N
northward to the southeast of the cold front.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 26N60W. Expect light to
gentle winds near the high pressure center, and gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Large NE swell continues to impact the
northeastern half of the SW N Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front from 31N57W to the Florida Straits will stall later
tonight from 31N60W to the Florida Straits by early Sun and
dissipate by late Sun. A stronger cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to northwest
Cuba by Sun night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night
before starting to weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas
through Tue. Meanwhile, large long-period N to NE swell will
continue to affect the NE half of the area for the next several
days. Looking ahead, low pressure may move from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the
northern Bahamas through late Wed.

$$
mt/ec
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