[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160842
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A large and powerful 982 mb low
pressure system north of the area near 38N48W is supporting
strong to gale force winds and very large seas north of 30N
between 43W and 55W, with storm force winds north of 31N. Recent
altimeter passes showed seas in this area of 20 to 23 ft along
31N. Winds will diminish below gale force later this morning as
the low north of the area tracks northeast, thus reducing the
pressure gradient over the north-central subtropical Atlantic
waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A 998 mb low north of the area near
the coast of Portugal near 40N09W is producing gale force winds
over the adjacent waters. A gale warning is in effect for Meteo-
France High Seas Zone Irving and for additional zones north of
there. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France at website gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic tropical waters through
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N17W to 04N35W to near the coast of Suriname at
06N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present
from the Equator to 07N between 21W and 45W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 05N to 08N between 45W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida southwest
where it stalls just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. An earlier
squall line ahead of the front is now a remnant trough stretching
from near Naples, Florida to the north-central Yucatan Peninsula.
New scattered thunderstorms have developed along central portions
from 23N to 25N between 83W and 86W. A 1019 mb high is located
over SW Louisiana and supports a weak ridge in the wake of the
front. This pattern is providing gentle to moderate N to NE winds
north and west of the front with seas in the 3-6 ft range, except
E to SE winds in the west-central and NW Gulf closer to the high.
Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 3 ft are over the far
SE gulf ahead of the front, except southerly moderate winds
through the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the front will become completely stationary by
this afternoon, extending from the Straits of Florida to the W
central Gulf. A secondary push of cold air over the NW Gulf will
reinvigorate the front and cause it to reach from the Straits of
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. A large area of
fresh to near gale N to NE winds should occur over the N, central
and W Gulf this weekend. The cold front should dissipate just
southeast of the basin by Mon morning. Another front may impact
the Gulf Tue and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure anchored by a 1019 mb high NE of the Bahamas near
28N66W extends a ridge north of the Caribbean. This high combined
with lower pressure over Colombia continues to support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central basin, including in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in that region are in the 8-10 ft range.
Moderate to fresh trades are present in the E and SW Caribbean
along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds dominate
the waters in the NW basin with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the southern Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and western Panama Caribbean offshore waters
associated with E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through at least Tue night with moderate to
locally fresh winds elsewhere. Large, long-period N to NE swell
will continue to propagate across the Tropical N Atlantic and
through the Mona and Anegada Passages for the next several days.
A cold front will dissipate as it pushes into the NW Caribbean
Sun night into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Gale
Warnings in the central Atlantic and east Atlantic.

A cold front is offshore the Carolinas to near Fort Piece,
Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front north of
29N between 71W and 79W, along with seas of 7-10 ft. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm southeast of
the front mainly north of 28N. High pressure anchored by a 1019
mb high NE of the Bahamas near 28N66W extends a ridge across the
SW N Atlantic waters ahead of the front, supporting light to
gentle variable winds near the high, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere west of 60W. East of the high, a cold front associated
with the large and powerful low pressure system described in the
Special Features section extends through 31N48W extending to
27N56W, then as a dissipating stationary front to 26N65W.
Otherwise, the remainder basin is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge with moderate to fresh trades south of 20N, and
gentle to moderate trades north of 20N away from the Special
Feature surrounding area. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in N to NE swell
across these waters, except 4 to 6 ft southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, a powerful low pressure system
northeast of the area will move away with fresh to strong winds
north of 28N and east of 58W diminishing this morning. A cold
front from 31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida will reach from
near 31N64W to the Florida Keys by Sat morning, and dissipate on
Sun. A second cold front will move off the the SE United States
coast Sat night, extend from 31N58W to the SE Bahamas Mon morning,
before weakening and becoming stationary from 28N55W to the SE
Bahamas Tue morning. Large, long-period N to NE swell will
continue to affect much of the area for the next several days.

$$
Lewitsky
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