[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A large and powerful low pressure
system north of the area is supporting strong to gale force winds
and very large seas N of 27N between 37W and 58W as indicated by
earlier scatterometer and altimeter data. Winds will diminish
below gale force this morning as the low N of the area tracks NE,
thus reducing the pressure gradient over the north-central
subtropical Atlantic waters. Peak seas during the peak winds will
range between 21 and 24 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic tropical waters through
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N17W to 04N33W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 06N between 20W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extending from near Tampa Bay, Florida to just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula stalls into the eastern Bay of Campeche.
A squall line is ahead of the front generating showers and tstms
in portions of the SE gulf. A 1017 mb high is located over coastal
SW Louisiana and starts to build a ridge in the wake of the front.
This is providing gentle to moderate N to NE winds N and W of the
front with seas in the 3-6 ft range. Light to gentle variable
winds and seas to 3 ft are over the far SE gulf ahead of the
front.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from SW Florida to
the Yucatan of Mexico by Fri morning. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of the front will continue to race eastward
across the E Gulf this evening. The front will become stationary
by Fri afternoon, extending from the Florida Straits to the W
central Gulf. A secondary push of cold air over the NW Gulf will
reinvigorate the front and cause it to reach from the Florida
Straits to the Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. A large area of
strong to near gale N to NE winds should occur over the N, central
and W Gulf this weekend. The cold front should dissipate just
southeast of the basin by Mon morning. Another front may impact
the Gulf Tue and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high presure anchored by a 1020 mb high NE of the Bahamas
near 27N69W extends a ridge to the northern Caribbean and continue
to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central basin
as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas in that region are
in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh trades are present in the
E and SW Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds dominate the
waters in the NW basin with seas of 3-4 ft. Seas of 5-7 ft are
elsewhere in the E and SW regions of the basin. Otherwise,
scattered showers are in the Costa Rica offshore waters associated
with E Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through at least Tue night with moderate to
locally fresh winds elsewhere. Large, long-period N to NE swell
will continue to propagate across the Tropical N Atlantic and
through the Mona and Anegada Passages for the next several days. A
cold front will dissipate as it pushes into the NW Caribbean Sun
night into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic.

A cold front is offshore the Carolinas to near Jacksonville,
Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are ahead of the front
north of 29N and west of 75W. Scattered showers associated with a
now weakening squall line are affecting portion of the northern
Bahamas and the offshore waters N of 25N between 70W and 78W. Strong
high presure anchored by a 1020 mb high NE of the Bahamas near
27N69W extends a ridge across the SW N Atlantic waters ahead of
the front and support light to gentle variable winds to the waters
S of 25N and E of the Bahamas to 59W, except for moderate winds in
the Caribbean approaches. Ahead of the high, a cold front
associated with the low in the special features enters the area
near 31N49W to 25N63W. See the section for details on the gale.
Otherwise, the remainder basin is domainted by a broad subtropical
ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, a powerful low pressure system
northeast of the area will continue to support strong to gale
force W to NW winds and very large seas through tonight to the
waters north of 28N and east of 60W. The cold front will reach
from near 31N64W to the Florida Keys Sat morning, and dissipate on
Sun. A second cold front will move off the the SE United States
coast Sat night, extend from 31N58W to the SE Bahamas Mon morning,
before weakening and becoming stationary from 28N55W to the SE
Bahamas Tue morning. Large, long-period N to NE swell will
continue to affect much of the area for the next several days.

$$
Ramos
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