[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N30W and
westward to 03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 60nm of the ITCZ between 25W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed across the Gulf, extending from
SW Florida to just north of New Orleans, Louisiana. Overcast low
clouds persist across the northern Gulf waters to the north of
the front, from the Big Bend to coastal Alabama. Fair skies
dominate the remainder of the Gulf, except for high clouds
streaming northeastward across the Texas and Louisiana waters
ahead of an approaching cold front.

Fresh to strong winds prevail across most of the central and
western Gulf, with E to SE winds east of 90W and SE to S winds
west of 90W. A recent scatterometer pass revealed locally strong
winds in the NE Gulf just south of the stationary boundary.
Recent buoy observations show seas have built to 8 ft across the
Texas waters. Seas elsewhere across the central and western Gulf
are 4 to 6 ft. in the far eastern Gulf, light to gentle winds
prevail with seas under 3 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow will prevail
over the central and western Gulf tonight into Wed ahead of the
next cold front, which is forecast to move off the coast of
Texas Wed morning. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to
the central Bay of Campeche early Thu and from Sarasota, FL to
the central Bay of Campeche Thu night before slowing down and
beginning to weaken. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected to accompany the front Wed over the NW Gulf, and Wed
night into Thu across the north-central and NE Gulf of Mexico.
Strong to locally near-gale force NNW to N winds are expected
behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, diminishing to
moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front Wed night
into Thu for the central and eastern Gulf. The weak front should
become stationary Fri night from the Florida Keys to the far
south- central Gulf of Mexico before weakening further. The
front should remain in about the same position through Sun night
as a surface trough forms along the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern persists across the Caribbean, as a cold
front has become stationary to the north of the region across the
NW Bahamas and S Florida. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail
across the NE Caribbean. Moderate easterly tradewinds prevail
elsewhere across the basin except for fresh winds within 90 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the east and
south central basin and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere across the NW. Large
NE swell across the Atlantic continues to move through the
Caribbean Passages of the NE Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 9 ft.

An upper level trough is inducing a surface trough that
stretches from the Leeward Islands to the Leeward Antilles. As a
result, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted NE of the
ABC Islands.

For the forecast, winds will increase slightly across the
basin beginning Wed as high pressure builds to the east of
Florida. This will expand the area of fresh to strong winds
across the central Caribbean Sea through Fri. Large long-period
N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the NE
Caribbean passages and affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters for
much of the week. Another large set of N swell is forecast to
begin to propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic waters
starting late on Fri and continue through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a low pressure system offshore Nova
Scotia entering the area near 31N52W and continuing SW to 23N70W
and to the Central Bahamas, where it becomes stationary to SE
FL. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the
boundary north of 25N. A recent scatterometer pass found
moderate N-NW winds behind the boundary east of 66W. High
pressure over the Mid-Atlantic U.S. states is allowing for
moderate to fresh NE-E winds behind the remainder of the
boundary in the W Atlantic. Scatterometer data also found fresh
to strong SW-S winds about 240 nm ahead of the cold front, north
of 26N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell are mainly behind the
front and are reaching the Bahamas and central to northern FL.

High pressure ridging dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
basin, except for E of the Lesser Antilles, where the base of an
upper level trough over the NE Caribbean is supporting an area
of active convection. The ridge extends from a 1021 mb high
pressure center near 25N30W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow
is over most of the N Atlantic basin around this high, except
for an area of moderate to locally fresh winds from 05N to 20N
between 26W and 53W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft N of 26N in NW swell
and mainly 8 to 10 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken on Wed as high
pressure builds east of Florida. Large long-period N to NE swell
will continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of
days. The large and powerful low pressure system north of the
area will bring strong to near gale force W winds Wed night
through Thu night to the waters east of 65W and north of 27N.
Very large seas can be expected in this area. Farther west,
fresh to strong southerly winds will develop offshore NE Florida
beginning Wed night as a strong cold front approaches the
southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the
coast late Thu, reach from near 31N75W to West Palm Beach,
Florida early Fri, and from near 31N65W to the Florida Keys
early Sat. A pre-frontal line of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms, some potentially strong, is likely to move
offshore the southeastern U.S. coast early on Thu. On Sun, a
reinforcing cold front is expected to merge with it. The merged
front is expected to reach from near 31N62W to the southeastern
Bahamas and eastern Cuba Sun night. The fresh to strong
southerly winds will shift eastward across the northern and
central waters through Sat and exit the area late Sat. Fresh
northwest to north winds will follow behind the merged front.

$$
Mora
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