[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132328
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to
01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to
05N between 06W and 46W. Scattered moderate to locally strong
convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 48W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed across the Gulf, extending from SW
Florida to just north of New Orleans, across Lake Pontchartrain.
continues northwestward, from SE Louisiana, to north central
Texas. Overcast low clouds persist across the NE Gulf waters to
the north of the front, from the Big Bend to coastal Alabama. Fair
skies dominate the remainder of the Gulf, except for high clouds
streaming northeastward across the Texas and Louisiana waters.

Fresh to strong SSE winds prevail across the Gulf W of 92W, ahead
of a cold front across Texas. Recent buoy observations show seas
have built to 7 ft across the Texas waters, and will reach 8 ft
very soon. Seas elsewhere across the western Gulf are 4 to 6 ft.
Fresh SE winds, and sea heights of 4 to 7 ft are to the south of
the Florida Panhandle. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights
that range from 2 foot to 4 feet, are in the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure ridging over the area will shift eastward through
tonight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas. Fresh to locally
strong SE return flow will persist in the western and central
Gulf through tonight as the cold front approaches the NW Gulf.
Seas will build to 8 ft in the area of strongest winds. The front
is expected to move over the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach from
Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thu night,
and from the Straits of Florida to the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula by late Fri. The front is expected to become stationary
and weaken from the lower Straits of Florida to the far south-
central Gulf Sat and Sat night. A line of thunderstorms is
expected to accompany the front Wed and Wed night across the NW
and north- central Gulf. Strong N winds are expected behind the
front Wed in the western Gulf, diminishing to moderate to fresh
northerly winds behind the front later for the central and eastern
Gulf. Seas will build to a peak of about 9 ft in the NW Gulf Wed,
then shift to the NE Gulf late Wed night into early Thu, before
subsiding during the afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern persists across the Caribbean, as a cold
front has become stationary to the north of the region across the
NW Bahamas and S Florida. An upper level trough extending from the
central Caribbean ENE across the NE Caribbean and into the central
Atlantic is promoting unstable atmospheric conditions across the
Windward Islands and waters eastward to 50W. Active weather across
the Windwards earlier today has shifted mostly into the Tropical
Atlantic. Scattered light to moderate convection, mostly aloft,
is noted across the extreme southeast Caribbean and the
Lesser Antilles south of Guadeloupe.

Light to gentle winds prevail across the NE Caribbean. Moderate
easterly tradewinds prevail elsewhere across the basin except for
fresh winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas are 4 to
6 ft across the east and south central basin, and 2 to 4 ft
elsewhere across the NW. Large NE swell across the Atlantic
continues to move through the Caribbean Passages of the NE
Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 9 ft.

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W in Colombia, southwestward,
beyond the border of Panama and Costa Rica, into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Associated isolated convection is seen over land
and across the eastern Pacific.

Weak high pressure ridging north of the Caribbean Sea is allowing
for gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds across the
basin, except for fresh to pulsing locally strong NE to E winds
offshore Colombia. Little change is expected through tonight.
Then, winds will increase slightly across the basin beginning Wed
as high pressure builds to the east of Florida. Large N to NE
swell will continue to propagate through the NE Caribbean passages
and affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters for much of the week.
New N swell is forecast to begin to propagate through the
Tropical N Atlantic waters starting late on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N57W to 24.5N71W, then become
stationary across the NW Bahamas and enters extreme S Florida
across the upper Florida Keys. High pressure and anticyclonic
flow dominates the waters N of the front and W of 70W, with strong
E to NE winds across the Florida coastal waters N of the Bahamas.
Radar shows scattered showers across the coasts and near shore
waters from Palm Beach to Daytona Beach. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in NE
to E swell to the W of 75W and 8 to 10 ft in NE swell elsewhere
north of the front.

A narrow west to east ridge prevail from the eastern Atlantic to
the SE Bahamas and south of the front. Gentle winds and seas 8 to
10 ft in NE Atlantic swell dominate these waters N of 18N to the
front and W of 50W.

The base of an upper level trough exits the NE Caribbean and
extends NE across the Atlantic to near 30N30W. Active convection
is occurring E of the Windward Islands as a result, and is
described above. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft prevail across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles to 50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1017 mb high pressure center near
33N39W to along 22N north of Puerto Rico. The pressure gradient to
the south of the ridge is yielding moderate to locally fresh ENE
trade winds south of 18-20N between 30W and 50W. Seas are 6 to 9
ft in N and NE swell.

The front across the W Atlantic to the NW Bahamas will reach from
near 30N55W to the central Bahamas this evening, then weaken on
Wed as high pressure builds in east of Florida. Large long-
period N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area for
the next couple of days. A large and powerful low pressure system
north of the area will bring strong to near gale force W winds Wed
night through Thu night to the waters east of 65W and north of
27N. Very large seas can be expected in this area. Farther west,
fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore
NE Florida beginning Wed night as a strong cold front approaches
the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the
coast late Thu, reach from near 31N75W to West Palm Beach,
Florida early Fri, and from near 31N64W to the Florida Keys early
Sat. The fresh to strong southerly winds will shift eastward
across the northern and central waters through Sat, while fresh
west to northwest winds are expected behind the front.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net