[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Guinea, to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from
08N20W to 06N28W 06.5N50W. Widely scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 06N E of 20W to the W
coast of Africa, and from 01N to 08N between 26W and 46W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 46W
and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front in the northern parts and the coastal
plains of the Gulf of Mexico, has lifted northward and inland, and
across the Florida-Georgia border across the east portion, and
just inland across southeast Texas across western portions. An
area of moderate to strong convection is located off the mouth of
the Mississippi River, from 28N to the coasts of Mississippi and
Alabama, between 87W and 90W. This weather is occurring along a
low level trough across this area. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the Gulf. Seas are mostly 3 ft
and less across the basin, except to 4 ft off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

Surface ridging will begin to shift eastward early next week as a
cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail today, then becoming moderate to fresh southeast to south
in the central Gulf late Mon night into early Wed. Winds may
increase to locally strong in the western Gulf late Mon night
into early Tue evening as the front approaches from the NW. Seas
will build in the area of strongest winds. The front is expected
to move across the NW Gulf on Wed, then reach from southwest
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu night. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of a weakening Atlantic cold front extends from
the central Atlantic southwestward and has crosses into the
extreme NE Caribbean, to Puerto Rico coastal waters along 17.5N.
Small widely scattered showers dot the waters of the NE Caribbean.
Light to gentle N to NE winds prevail across the E Caribbean to
the east of 66W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft in mainly NE swell
moving through the Caribbean Passage, where seas are as high as
6-7 ft.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the southern half of the
central Caribbean Sea, in the Windward Passage, and off the
coast of SE Cuba in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate easterly winds or
slower are elsewhere. Sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet
from Jamaica westward, and from 2 feet to 5 feet from Jamaica
eastward.

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W in Colombia, through
eastern Panama, and southern Panama, into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Active convection associated with the trough is occurring
across the eastern Pacific waters.

Large long-period N to NE swell across the central
Atlantic will continue to fade across the regional waters tonight,
then be reinforced by another pulse of long- period swell during
the early part of the week. High pressure north of the Caribbean
will allow for gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds
across the basin, except for fresh to strong pulsing northeast to
east winds offshore Colombia during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the NE Atlantic through 31N34.5W to
19N57W and across the waters and islands of the extreme NE
Caribbean to 17.5N67W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the front to the
N of 22.5N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ahead of
this area, from 22N to 26N between 32W and 38W. A trough is
located NW of the front, through 31N50W to 28N62W. Scattered
moderate convection associated with this feature is noted N of 29N
between 43W and 50W. Broad cyclonic wind flow prevails N of the
front and E of 63W, while strong SW winds of 20-30 kt are within
240 nm SE of the front, north of 20N. Large N and NW swell
dominating much of the central and W Atlantic for the past few
days continues this evening, producing wave heights of 8 to 14 ft
north of the front, and 7 to 11 ft W of 67W to the Bahamas and
north Florida coastal waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in north swell
south of the front and into the deep tropics.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is SE of the front and centered near
25N24W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward from 10N to the cold front. Strong to
near gale force SW winds previal within 400 nm E of the front,
and north of 20N.  The sea heights range from 7 feet to 15 feet
from 15N northward from 40W eastward.

A cold front over the far southeastern waters will weaken as it
shifts east of the area by late tonight. Large long- period N to
NE swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the cold front,
producing high seas into late Tue. Long-period ENE swell is
expected to reach the Florida offshore waters north of 27N well
into the week. Hazardous marine conditions are likely, especially
east of the Bahamas through late Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore NE Florida
beginning late Wed night as a strong cold front approaches the
southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the
coast late Thu, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Fri,
and from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by
late Fri night. The fresh to strong southerly winds will shift
eastward across the northern and central waters, while fresh to
strong west to northwest winds follow in behind the front. Seas
will build quickly with these winds.

$$
Stripling
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