[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Guinea, to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from
08N20W, to 06N30W 06N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 10N southward from 40W eastward. A
surface trough is along 14N49W 07N47W 01N46W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N southward
between 40W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in the northern parts and the coastal
plains/the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, from the
Florida Big Bend to the Texas coast between the upper Texas Gulf
coast and the middle Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 89W
and 93W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N
southward between 90W and 93W.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds have been within 75 nm of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate wind
speeds, and slower, have been in the remainder of the area.
The sea heights have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet from 87W
eastward, and from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

Surface ridging will begin to shift eastward early next week as
a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail today, then becoming moderate to fresh southeast to
south in the central Gulf late Mon night into early Wed. Winds
may increase to locally strong speeds in the western Gulf late
Mon night into early Tue evening as the front approaches from
the NW. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The
front is expected to move across the NW Gulf on Wed, then reach
from southwest Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu night.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough starts near 14N58W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
15N67W in the Caribbean Sea, through the SW part of the
Dominican Republic and much of Haiti, through the Bahamas, to
28N79W to the east of Florida. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate is between 60W and 70W, and mostly from 14N
northward from 70W westward.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the southern half of the
central Caribbean Sea, in the Windward Passage, and off the
coast of SE Cuba in the Caribbean Sea. Earlier wind speeds were
fresh to strong in the southern half of the central Caribbean
Sea. Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere. The sea
heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 6 feet from Jamaica
westward, and from 2 feet to 5 feet from Jamaica eastward.

The ITCZ extends from 10N75W in Colombia, through eastern
Panama, and southern Panama, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 14N
southward from 70W westward.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 11/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.020 in Bermuda, and
0.12 in Nassau in the Bahamas.

Large long-period northeast swell across the central Atlantic
will continue subsiding today before building again early this
week as another swell event reaches the region. High pressure
that is to the north of the Caribbean Sea is allowing for gentle
to moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin,
except for fresh to strong pulsing northeast to east winds
offshore Colombia during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N35W 28N40W 22N50W 19N60W 19N68W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 400 nm to the southeast of the cold front, from 19N to
26N between 29W and 44W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from the line 31N26W 24N40W 20N50W 16N60W, northward
and northwestward. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for
the time period that ended at 11/1200 UTC, according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, are:
0.20 in Bermuda, and 0.12 in Nassau in the Bahamas. The sea
heights range from 9 feet to 15 feet from the cold front
northwestward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from
05N to the cold front between 40W and 60W.

A surface trough starts near 14N58W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
15N67W in the Caribbean Sea, through the SW part of the
Dominican Republic and much of Haiti, through the Bahamas, to
28N79W to the east of Florida. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate from 20N northward from 70W westward. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 25N northward from 70W
westward.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N20W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward from the 31N35W 19N60W cold front eastward. Gale-force
winds were part of the METEO-FRANCE forecast, for the IRVING
marine area, until 11/1500 UTC. The sea heights range from 7
feet to 14 feet from 15N northward from 40W eastward.

A cold front extending southwestward into the area over the far
southeastern waters will weaken as it shifts east of the area
tonight. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to impact
the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the
southeastern Bahamas and the eastern Caribbean, producing high
seas into the start of the week. Long-period east swell is
expected to reach the Florida offshore waters north of 27N well
into the week. Hazardous marine conditions are likely,
especially east of the Bahamas through Mon.

$$
mt/ja
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