[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning:

A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands, centered near 26N57W and with a minimum central
pressure of 1001 mb, continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted N of 20N between 40W and 58W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it
meanders generally northeastward during the next few days. By
Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler waters and
interact with a mid- latitude trough, limiting potential of
tropical transition after that time.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force
winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to
40 kt winds exists mainly in the N semicircle of the low, N of a
26N57W to 28N48W line and E of 59E. These winds will increase
through tonight and reach storm force Wed in the general area
where gales are currently ongoing. Winds will then diminish
slightly with gales continuing Wed night through Thu night. Seas
are already reaching 16 to 20 ft to the N and W of the center,
with a broad area of 12 ft or higher seas N of 22N between 45W and
63W. The radius of hazardous seas will continue to expand over
the new few days, with waves reaching as high as 30 ft to the N
and W of the center Wed and Wed night. There is a medium chance of
tropical or subtropical cyclone formation within the next 48
hours. More information about this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W,to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 04N29W to
04N48W. Scattered moderate convection extend along both of these
boundaries between the Equator and 10N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high pressure centered over Florida is
dominating the Gulf of Mexico this morning, precluding any
convection. Light to gentle mainly SE winds dominate the eastern
half of the Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh return southerly
winds in the west. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the east and 2 to 4 ft in
the west. Within 60 nm of the northern Gulf coast, patchy fog is
restricting visibility to 1 mile or less in some areas.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Gulf will
meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Fri night.
Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through Wed
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean and NW South America is leading to
fresh to locally strong NE winds across the central and western
Caribbean, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds are mainly moderate and
northerly in the eastern basin. Seas in the east are 3 to 5 ft,
except 5 to 7 ft in and near Atlantic passages, due to long period
northerly swell. No significant convection is occurring in the
Caribbean this morning.

For the forecast, deepening low pressure across the central
Atlantic during the next few days will induce NE winds across much
of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through the
Caribbean Passages, in the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia into
Thu night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will move
through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
gale-producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential
for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours.
Storm force winds are expected with this low over portions of the
waters starting Wed, regardless of tropical or subtropical
development.

The powerful and strengthening low pressure is dominating weather
across much of the basin. The area of strong winds associated
with it extend N of 20N between 40W and 62W, with the area of 8 ft
or greater seas being observed N of 15N, between 20W and 70W.

For the remainder of the basin, the other main feature is a cold
front in the eastern Atlantic that extends from the Azores to
around 27N30W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along
and within 90 nm ahead of this front, with strong SW winds
occurring ahead of it and fresh to strong W winds behind it. A
deep layer trough along 47W from 10N to 20N is leading to
scattered moderate convection between 42W and 50W.

For the forecast for areas W of 55W, much of the region will be
dominated by the previously discussed low pressure NE of the
Leeward Islands, that is described and forecast in more detail in
the Special Features section above. Otherwise, large long-period
north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters and
Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E
Caribbean with high seas throughout the week, with large E swell
reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through
Sat.

$$
KONARIK
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