[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A 1001 mb low pressure center is near 26.5N56W. Gale-force winds,
and sea heights that range from 14 feet to 18 feet, are from 28N
to 31N between 47W and 58W. The 30-hour forecast consists of the
low pressure center becoming more organized, and the pressure is
forecast to reach 986 mb. Storm-force winds are forecast, and the
sea heights are forecast to range from 20 feet to 30 feet, from
30N to 31N between 55W and 58W. The environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics, while it meanders
generally northeastward during the next few days. The low pressure
center is expected to move into cooler waters by Friday, and
interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the potential of
tropical transition after that time. More information about this
system, including gale warnings, is found in High Seas Forecasts,
that are issued by the National Weather Service, at the website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. The chance of
formation into a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
medium.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to 03N26W
05N32W 04N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through 31N75W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through South Florida near Lake Okeechobee, to the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, and the coast of Mexico along 22N.

The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 90W westward, and in
the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet
elsewhere. Broad moderate anticyclonic winds span the area. The
exceptions are from fresh winds within 90 nm of the northern part
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and from 26N to 29N from 90W westward.

Areas of low clouds and fog, and some visibilities of 1 mile or
less, are in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters, from
Brooksville in Florida, to Texas.

High pressure centered across the NE Gulf will meander about the
NE Gulf and North Florida into Fri night. Moderate to fresh return
flow will prevail W of 92W into Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient, that is between Gulf of Mexico high
pressure and comparatively lower pressures in the western
Caribbean Sea and in Colombia, is allowing for fresh to strong
north to northeast winds and sea heights that range from 6 feet to
8 feet, from Cuba and Hispaniola southward, including in the
Windward Passage and in the Mona Passages. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet from the Windward Passage westward, and from
3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are
within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 76W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are within 120 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 72W and 78W. Gentle to moderate winds, or slower
speeds, are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W in Colombia, through
Panama and Costa Rica, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 13N southward

Deepening low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean during the
next few days will induce NE winds across much of the basin, and
fresh to locally strong NE winds through the Caribbean Passages,in
the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia through Thu. Large NE
swell across the central Atlantic will move through the Caribbean
Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
gale-force wind warnings, and eventual storm-force wind warnings,
in the central Atlantic Ocean. A 1001 mb low pressure center is
near 26.5N56W.

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows that
cyclonic wind flow is to the south of the 1001 mb low pressure
center that is near 26.5N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 10N to 22N between 40W and 50W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere to the south of the 1001 mb low pressure
center, between 40W and 65W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 480 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and
within 480 nm of the center in the N semicircle. A surface trough
is along 25N/27N between 37W and 47W. Precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the
north of the surface trough. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES
section, for information about the ongoing gale-force winds,that
are forecast to increase to storm-force.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N28W 29N30W
27N35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
24N from 30W eastward. A 1019 mb high pressure center is in the
Western Sahara near 27N13W. A surface ridge extends from the 1019
mb high center to the Canary Islands.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds are from Puerto Rico northward
between 60W and 71W. Moderate to slower wind speeds are from 71W
westward. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 13 feet within 240
nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 400 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10
feet from 13N northward between 50W and 71W. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from the Bahamas northward from
71W westward. The sea heights are 3 feet or lower, from the NW
Bahamas southwestward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 13
feet from 14N northward from 50W eastward. The sea heights in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean range from 4 feet to 7 feet.

A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during
the next few days. By Friday, the low is expected to move over
cooler waters and interact with a mid- latitude trough, limiting
potential of tropical transition after that time. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical development, gale force winds are
occurring across the far NE waters tonight. These winds will
increase Tue and reach storm force Wed. Winds will then diminish
slightly with gales continuing Wed night through Thu. Large long-
period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters
and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E
Caribbean with high seas throughout the week, with large E swell
reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through
Sat.

$$
mt/sk
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