[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022215
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong NE winds behind a cold front will
increase to gale-force on Sat N of 28N between 47W and 56W.
These winds will prevail through Sat night. Seas in this region
will increase to 16 to 19 ft Sat and remain very rough through
Sun. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 05N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 07N and E of 23W, and from 05N
to 09N between 46W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed in the far western Gulf supporting
showers and thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche mainly W of 94W.
Elsewhere, high pressure centered over the U.S. Southeast is
supporting moderate easterly winds in the eastern Gulf and gentle
SE winds in the western Gulf. Fresh easterly winds are noted in
the Florida Straits. Seas ranging between 5-7 ft prevail in the
eastern half of the basin, while seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the
western half.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the far northern
Gulf Sun, then stall Sun night and dissipate Mon. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical high pressure and
lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh ENE
winds across the majority of the basin. Strong winds are noted in
the NW basin and Windward Passage. Seas are generally 5-7 ft,
reaching 8 ft in the NW basin.

For the forecast, the tightening pressure gradient between
building high pressure to the north and climatological low
pressure over Colombia will lead to moderate to fresh NE to E
trades across the area through Sat night, with areas of strong
winds in the lee of the Greater Antilles, the Windward Passage,
and offshore Colombia. Winds will then slowly diminish for the
start of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on gale conditions
that will develop Saturday to the SE of Bermuda, behind a cold
front.

A cold front extends from 31N58W to the Bahamas near 25N76W.
Behind the front, strong to near gale force NE winds prevail with
8-14 ft seas. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh NE winds are
noted with 6-8 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a persistent
upper-level low is supporting a 1011 mb surface low located near
23N51W, and a surface trough that extends from the low to 29N52W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted east of these features
mainly between 40W-52W. Fresh SE winds and seas are 6-8 ft in the
surrounding area. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends
along 30N between 16W-35W, bringing fresh northerly winds and
rough seas to north of 30N. Moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas
dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become
stationary tonight near 24N. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front, with increasing winds and building seas across
most of the forecast waters. Long-period north to northeast
swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and
Puerto Rico with rough seas this weekend.

$$
ERA
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