[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong NE winds behind a cold front will
increase to gale force Sat afternoon N of 28N between 48W and 56W.
These winds will continue into at least Sat night. Seas in this
region will increase to 16 to 20 ft Sat and remain very rough
through Sun. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N22W.The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 05N51W. Numerous
moderate convection is observed from 01N to 08N, between 08W to
18W. Isolated moderate convection is noted north of the ITCZ from
07N to 09N, between 37W to 40W. Similar convection is noted from
05N to 08N, between 48W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface in the far western Gulf is supporting a few showers and
thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, high pressure
over the U.S. Southeast is supporting moderate easterly winds in
the eastern Gulf and gentle SE winds in the western Gulf. Fresh
easterly winds are observed in the Florida Straits. Seas are 5-7
ft in the eastern basin and 4-6 ft in the western basin.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the far northern
Gulf Sun, then stall Sun night and dissipate Mon. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh ENE winds across the
majority of the basin. Strong winds are noted in the NW basin and
Windward Passage. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, reaching 8 ft in the
NW basin.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between building
high pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over
Colombia will lead to moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the
area through Sat night, with areas of strong winds in the lee of
the Greater Antilles, the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia.
Winds will then slowly diminish for the start of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on gale conditions
that will develop Saturday to the SE of Bermuda, behind a cold
front.

A cold front extends from 31N57W to the Central Bahamas near
25N77W. Behind the front, winds are strong to near gale force
from the NE with 8-14 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are
moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas. In the central Atlantic a
persistent upper level low is supporting a N-S oriented surface
trough from 18N to 29N, centered along 50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed east of this feature within fresh SE winds.
Seas are 6-8 ft in the surrounding area. In the eastern Atlantic,
a cold front is approaching from the north, bringing fresh
northerly winds and rough seas to north of 30N. Otherwise,
moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front
will become stationary tonight near 24N. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas
across most of the forecast waters. Long-period north to
northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern
Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas this weekend.

$$
Flynn
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