[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1007 mb area of low pressure along a tropical wave is near
15N48W, moving W at 5-10 kt. A large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms is present with scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection noted from 10N to 17N between
42W and 57W. Some gradual development of this system is expected
over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the
adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong
NE winds are noted over the northern semicircle of the low, with
seas peaking near 10 ft. The disturbance has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of
development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
marine information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure has
its axis just off the west coast of Africa near 18W from 02N-18N,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 17W and 30W. Some
gradual development is possible over the next few days while it
moves generally westward to west-northwestward. The system could
become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern
Atlantic waters during the next few days. By late this week, the
disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters and further
development is not likely after that time. There is a low chance
of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, the system could bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday.

A tropical wave has its axis in the central Caribbean Sea near
71W from 21N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. An upper-
level low centered near the Windward Passage is enhancing
scattered moderate convection west of the wave axis from 17N-21N
between 71W-77W, including over Haiti and the Windward Passage.
Additional convection is noted over the Gulf of Venezuela and
inland near the Venezuela/Colombia border.

A tropical wave has its axis in the NW Caribbean Sea near 87W
from 21N southward to across Honduras and western Nicaragua,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is mostly inland over Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and
El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Africa near
14N17W to 10N30W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N48W to 10N53W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N53W to 10N61W. Aside from convection
described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves
sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 10N between 30W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed along 85W north of 24N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across portions
of the eastern Gulf, east of 86W, including over the western
portion of the Straits of Florida. A surface trough is just off the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, weak high
pressure controls the remainder of the Gulf waters. Light to
gentle winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, where seas of 1 to
2 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are in the western
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu night
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan
peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at
night through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The east Pacific monsoon trough is along 11N over the southwest
Caribbean. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over portions
of the area. A weak pressure gradient is over the Caribbean waters
with mainly moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh
winds noted over the south- central Caribbean and over the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted over the central Caribbean,
with 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Over the SW Caribbean to the south of
the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Elsewhere a small 1017 mb low pressure system is located east of
Bermuda near 30N54W. A surface trough extends from the low to
25N52W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the low and
trough. A high pressure center of 1020 mb is centered west of the
low near 29N65W, with a 1019 mb high pressure center east of the
low near 31N44W. An upper- level low near the Windward Passage is
enhancing scattered moderate convection between the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the Windward Passage. Mostly light to gentle
winds prevail north of 25N between 25W-75W, where seas of 3-4 ft
prevail. Moderate SE winds are off the east coast of Florida.
Gentle to moderate trades are south of 25N and west of 60W. Seas
are 4-5 ft east of the Bahamas. In the far E Atlantic, fresh to
strong SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough between the
coast of Africa and 31W, where seas are likely 6-10 ft. Fresh to
locally strong NNE winds are noted off the coast of Western
Sahara.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad area of low pressure
currently over the central tropical Atlantic is likely to develop
into a tropical depression later this week. It is forecast to
cross 55W Thu and move N of the Leeward Islands Fri, bringing
increasing winds and seas to these areas. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across much of the area into the
weekend.

$$
AL
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