[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300508
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1007 mb area of low pressure along a tropical wave is near
15N48W, moving W at 5-10 kt. A large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms is present with scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection noted from 09N-18N between 37W-57W.
A tropical depression is likely to form later this week as the
disturbance moves slowly toward the west and then west-northwest
at 5 to 10 kt, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward
Islands. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show fresh to strong NE
winds in the northern semicircle of the low, while altimeter data
from 30/0100 UTC show seas of 10 ft in the western semicircle. The
disturbance has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
additional marine information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure has
its axis just off the west coast of Africa along 17W from 06N-18N,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 17W and 31W. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next few
days while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward.
There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development within the
next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the system could bring
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by
Wednesday.

A tropical wave has its axis in the central Caribbean Sea near
70W from 21N southward across the Dominican Republic to western
Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. An upper-level low centered
near the Windward Passage is enhancing scattered moderate
convection ahead of the wave axis from 17N-21N between 71W-77W,
including over Haiti and the Windward Passage. Additional
convection is noted over the Gulf of Venezuela and inland near the
Venezuela/Colombia border.

A tropical wave has its axis in the NW Caribbean Sea near 86W
from 21N southward to across Honduras and western Nicaragua,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping
to induce scattered moderate to strong convection mostly inland
over Honduras. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted elsewhere
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Africa near
14N17W to 10N30W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N48W to 10N53.5W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N53.5W to 10N61W. All significant
convection areas are described above in the Special Features and
Tropical Waves sections.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed along 85W north of 24N, at 0300 UTC.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across
portions of the eastern Gulf, east of 86W, including over the
western portion of the Straits of Florida. A surface trough along
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is inducing scattered
moderate convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche, south of 21N
between 91W-93W. Otherwise, weak high pressure controls the
remainder of the Gulf waters. Recent ASCAT data show mainly light
to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, where buoys are measuring
seas of 1 to 2 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are in
the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu night
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan
Peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at
night through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Areas of precipitation over the central and western Caribbean are
associated with a pair of tropical waves and an upper-level low,
described in the Tropical Waves section above. The east Pacific
monsoon trough is along 11N over the southwest Caribbean. Isolated
showers and tstorms are over portions of the area. Somewhat
drier conditions are found east of 70W. Recent ASCAT satellite
wind data show mainly moderate trades across the basin, with some
fresh winds noted over the south-central basin and over the W
Caribbean from 14N-17N between 81W-85.5W. Recent buoy data show
3-4 ft seas over the E Caribbean. Seas of 4-6 ft are likely
occurring over the central Caribbean, with 2-4 ft seas elsewhere.
Over the SW Caribbean to the south of the monsoon trough, light to
gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

A small 1017 mb low pressure system is located about 570 nm east
of Bermuda near 31N54W. A surface trough extends from the low to
25N52W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 25N-29N
between 52W-55W. High pressure centers of 1021 mb are located on
either side of this feature, centered near 32N44W and 30N67W,
respectively. An upper-level low near the Windward Passage is
enhancing scattered moderate convection between the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the Windward Passage. Recent ASCAT satellite
wind data show mostly gentle winds north of 25N between 25W-75W,
where seas of 3-4 ft prevail. Moderate SE winds are off the east
coast of Florida. Moderate trades are south of 25N and west of
60W. Seas are 4-5 ft east of the Bahamas. In the far E Atlantic,
fresh to strong SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough
between the coast of Africa and 31W, where seas are likely 6-10
ft. Fresh to locally strong NNE winds are noted off the coast of
Western Sahara.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad area of low pressure
currently over the central tropical Atlantic is likely to develop
into a tropical depression later this week. It is forecast to
cross 55W Thu and move N of the Leeward Islands Fri, bringing
increasing winds and seas to these areas. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across much of the area into the
weekend.

$$
Hagen
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