[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Aug 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from just west of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 10N to 14N between 24W and 29W. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system through
early next week while it moves across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next five days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 knots. Isolated thunderstorms are seen
from 11N to 13N between 47W and 51W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the southeast
Bahamas at 22N southward across Hispaniola into northwestern
Venezuela and central Colombia, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
the Colombia-Venezuela border and the ABC Islands.

Another tropical wave is at the western Bay of Campeche from 21N
southward across southern Mexico into the East Pacific, and
moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania
near Nouakchott, passing over the southern Cabo Verde Islands at
15N24W through 10N37W to 12N51W. Aside from convection near the
tropical wave mentioned earlier, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is flaring up near the trough from 07N to 12N
between 36W and 39W. Scattered moderate convection is found near
and south of the trough from 10N to 19N between the African coast
and 21W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches west-southwestward from a 1014 mb low
over southern Louisiana across the northwest corner of the Gulf to
near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are evident up to 90 nm southeast and 20 nm northwest of the
front. A surface trough across central Florida is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the west coast
of central and southern Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section for additional weather in the Gulf.

A modest surface ridge reaches westward from southern Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft
are present at the northeastern, east-central, central and west-
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area through
the forecast period, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and
benign seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and
west of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the
late afternoons and nights through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakened ridge of high pressure to the north is maintaining
easterly trades across the entire Caribbean. A surface trough is
producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms near and
south of Puerto Rico. Convergent trades are triggering similar
conditions near the Windward Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section for additional weather in the basin. Gentle winds and seas
of 1 to 3 ft are found at the northwestern basin. Gentle to
moderate winds with 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of
the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the western Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends northeastward from central Florida to
beyond 31N at 77W. Another surface trough is seen east of the
Bahamas near 28N73W. These features are generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms the central Bahamas northward
between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast. A third surface trough
near 21N64W is producing isolated thunderstorms from 21N to 24N
between 62W and 67W. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent
flow aloft to cause scattered moderate convection from 22N to 26N
between 34W and 44W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge associated with a 1026 mb Azores High is
sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of
25N between 46W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. Gentle to
moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas exist from 13N to 25N between
35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NNE to NE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident
further east, north of 16N between the African coast and 46W/35W,
including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh southerly winds
and seas of 6 to 9 ft in southerly swell are from the Equator to
13N between 22W and 40W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
region over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds will prevail over the area through the weekend and into
early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola.

$$

Chan
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