[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260909
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 24W, from 19N
southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N
between 24W and 28W. Environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system through early next week while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at
15 to 20 mph, and There is a low chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next five days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 47W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. There is no
significant deep convection associated to this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 70W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is no
significant deep convection associated to this tropical wave.

The northern extent of a tropical wave has its axis near 94W from
21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Gulf
in association to this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 20N16W to 12N31W to 12N38W to 07N50W. Aside from convection
noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 32W
and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern extent of a tropical wave is over the SW Gulf. High
pressure prevails elsewhere. Winds are light to gentle over the NE
Gulf, and gentle to moderate elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft
range.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area through
the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and
to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the
late afternoons and at night through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters with
gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range
over the central Caribbean and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface trough over the eastern Caribbean will
continue to propagate westward across the Caribbean waters.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for slow
development when it moves across the central and western Caribbean
Sea, and there is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in
the next five days. Otherwise, high pressure over the central
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 31N45W to 27N59W. Light to
gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of this trough. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds are noted north of 23N and west of 71W.
Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail across the remainder of
the discussion area. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 73W.
Seas of 6-7 ft are noted from 17N to 25N east of 34W, and from 06N
to 12N between 16W and 32W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6 ft
range.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
area over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds will prevail over the area through the weekend and into
early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola.

$$
AL
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