[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis just offshore
Africa along 18W from 05N to 21N moving westward at 10 kt. The
surrounding environment of this wave has moistened up since 24
hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 10N to 14N between 18W-22W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N to 11N between 14W-22W. Convective activity preceding
this wave consists of a large cluster numerous moderate to strong
convection from 06N to 13N between 26W-32W, and of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 04N to 08N between
32W-38W. This activity has been rather persistent, and appears to
be a piece of energy that had detached from the wave when it was
inland Africa yesterday. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development of this system later this week, or during
the weekend as it continues on westward.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 02N
to 20N moving westward at 10 kt. Deep convection continues to be
limited due to a dry and stable surrounding environment. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm west and
120 nm east of the wave axis from 14N to 17N.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis approaching 60W
from 03N to 20N moving westward around 5 kt. Surface observations
from Barbados during the overnight hours have been indicating
light to heavy showers, with thunderstorms at times. In addition,
eastern Caribbean radar composites show scattered showers and
thunderstorms now spreading into the southeastern Caribbean within
about 180 nm west of the wave. Surface observations from other
Windward Islands are reporting similar type of weather. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also located east of the wave from
10N to 15N between the wave and 55W. Environmental conditions
could become more conductive for slow development of this system
in several days after it crosses the Windward Islands and moves
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea late this week and
into early next week.

A tropical wave has its axis inland the Yucatan Peninsula along
91W south of 20N to the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving
westward at about 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over and just offshore Belize, while scattered
showers and thunderstorms are just north of the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W southwestward to 14N30W, then to 12N50W and to the coast
of Venezuela near 09N61W. Outside of convection associated to
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
north of the trough between 37W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is across the area. The associated light
gradient is maintaining generally light to gentle east-southeast
winds over the Gulf, except for moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds near and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Marine conditions are quite favorable
as seas are relatively low throughout the Gulf, in the 1-3 ft
range, except for slighter higher seas of 3-4 ft in the central
and eastern Bay of Campeche, and in the central and west-central
sections of the Gulf.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed along
the northern Gulf waters due to a stationary boundary along the
coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will remain over the
area through the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas. The moderate to fresh northeast to east
near and to the west of the Yucatan peninsula in the eastern
Bay of Campeche will pulse due to local effects during the late
afternoons and at night through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere winds
are gentle to moderate along with 1-3 ft seas.

Deep-layer moisture over the western and central Caribbean is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across just about
the entire western Caribbean and over the central Caribbean north
of about 16N. Similar activity is along and just offshore the
coast of central and eastern Cuba, and over the southern part of
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle
to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. A
tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms
is approaching the Windward Islands. The wave will move across
the Lesser Antilles tonight, the eastern Caribbean Fri through
Sat night and the central Caribbean into early next week, with
potential for slow development.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure remains the dominant feature across the
subtropical Atlantic. A surface trough extends from near 30N72W
to 27N73W and to the central Bahamas. An area of numerous moderate
convection is evident to its east from 25N to 30N between the
trough and 67W. This activity is quickly increasing. Moderate
to fresh southeast to south winds are east of the trough to
near 65W, while light to gentle winds are to its west. Seas
west of the trough are in the 2-4 ft range, while east of the
trough they are in the 4-6 ft range. Generally, gentle to
moderate easterly winds along with seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere
over the area.

In the central Atlantic, a stationary frontal boundary extends
from a weak 1018 mb low that is centered near 32N40W to 29N51W.
An overnight ASCAT data pass indicated gentle to moderate
northeast winds behind the front and gentle winds south of the
front. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 25N. A 102 mb high center is
analyzed to the south of the stationary front near 27N44W.
Trade winds increase to moderate speeds south of 25N along
with 4-6 ft seas. A tight pressure gradient due to the
combination of strong high pressure centered well north of the
area and broad low pressure over northern Africa is resulting in
fresh to strong northeast winds and 6-9 ft seas from 20N to 31N
between the coast of Africa and 24W. Fresh southwest winds, as
noted in overnight ASCAT data passes over the far eastern
Atlantic, are feeding into the convection associated to the
tropical wave that is along 18W. These winds extend south to near
04N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will continue to slowly move westward through Fri while it
weakens. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be mainly east
of the trough. Otherwise, weak high pressure will build in the
wake of the trough through the next few days. The associated
gradient should allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds over the area through the weekend and into early next week,
except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern
Bahamas and Hispaniola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the NW forecast waters during the weekend as a front
stalls across north- central Florida and extends northeastward
over those waters. Winds and seas may be higher in and near
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Aguirre
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