[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa extending
along 17W, from 05N to 21N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 07N to 12N, between 13W and
24W. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system. The current outlook assigns a 0%
probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 48
hours and a 20% chance over the next 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W, from 02N to
20N, moving W at 10 kt. Strong convection is limited due to a
dry airmass, however isolated showers and thunderstorms are
observed from 12N to 16N, between 38W and 46W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 59W, from 03N to
20N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered weak convection is
observed from 08N to 15N, between 54W and 61W. Environmental
conditions could become more conductive for slow development
after the wave enters the Caribbean. The current outlook assigns
a 0% probability of tropical cyclone development over the next
48 hours and a 20% chance over the next 5 days.

A tropical wave extends along the Yucatan Peninsula, moving W at
5 kt. Showers and thunderstorms are impacting the eastern Bay of
Campeche due to this approaching wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W. Outside of
tropical wave activity, scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 12N, between 26W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure ridge dominates the pattern in the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
observed along the northern Gulf waters due to a stationary
boundary along the coast. Similar convection is observed within
180 nm of the west coast of Florida due to a surface trough.
Isolated showers are also observed throughout the central
portion of the basin due to an abundance of tropical moisture.
Outside of thunderstorm activity, marine conditions are quite
favorable across the Gulf. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate
with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area
through the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near
and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects
during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An abundance of tropical moisture across the western and central
Caribbean is supporting widely isolated thunderstorms across the
basin, with convection concentrated over Cuba, Haiti and the
Gulf of Gonave. The gradient between subtropical high pressure
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean with
3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with 1-3 ft
seas.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle
to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. A
tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms
is approaching the Windward Islands. The wave will move across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea late this week and into
early next week, with potential for slow development.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure remains the dominant feature across the
subtropical Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 31N71W to
25N74W, producing scattered moderate convection from 25N to 30N,
between 66W and 73W. East of this trough winds are moderate to
fresh from the south with 4-6 ft seas. West of the trough, winds
are gentle with 2-4 ft seas. Moderate easterly winds and 3-5 ft
seas dominate the remainder of the western Atlantic. In the
central Atlantic, a weak cold front extends from 31N41W to
30N51W. A recent scatterometer pass found moderate NE winds
behind the front and gentle winds ahead of the front. Seas are
3-5 ft north of 25N. Winds increase to moderate easterlies south
of 25N, with 4-6 ft seas. A tighter pressure gradient in the
eastern Atlantic is supporting Fresh NE winds and 6-9 ft seas.
Fresh SW winds are observed on scatterometer data in the eastern
Atlantic south of the monsoon trough, between the equator and
10N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will move
westward toward the Bahamas through Thu accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas may be higher in and
near scattered showers and thunderstorms. Relatively weak high
pressure will build in the wake of the trough through the next
few days. The associated gradient should allow for gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds over the area through the
weekend and into early next week, except for moderate to fresh
winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW forecast
waters during the weekend as a front stalls across north-central
Florida and extends northeastward over those waters.

$$
Flynn
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