[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from
08N to 22N moving westward at 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is
analyzed along the wave axis near 16N. Recently developed
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90
nm of the low in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection
is within 180 nm of the low in the SW quadrant, and within 120 nm
of the low in the NW quadrant. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are seen within 240 nm E of the wave from 11N-14N. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of this system
while it moves W-WNW at 10-15 kt across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Currently, this
system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 5
days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W from 06N
to 22N moving westward at about 15 kt. A scatterometer data pass
from last night indicated a subtle northeast to east-southeast
wind shift of the surface winds across the axis of this wave. No
deep convection is presently noted as the wave is passing through
a very dry and stable surrounding atmospheric environment.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W south of
20N to the eastern Pacific waters just west of Colombia. It is
moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are south of 13N between the wave and 83W and near
the northern part of the wave to the coast of Cuba. Isolated small
showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N within 120 nm east of
the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W southwestward through the 1012 mb low that is on the
tropical wave along 29W, and continues to 11N36W and to just
east of the tropical wave that is along 49W. The ITCZ extends from
09N50W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N
between 35W-40W, within 120 nm south of the trough between
32W-35W, from 05N to 09N between 51W-55W and within 60 nm
northwest of the ITCZ between 54W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends from the Atlantic west-southwestward
to across the north-central Gulf of Mexico, with a 1018 mb high
pressure centered just inland the western Florida panhandle. As a
result, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the Gulf
with 2-4 ft seas throughout. A surface trough is just along the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier observed related
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern and central
Bay of Campeche has diminished to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Large clusters of thunderstorms are increasing
along and inland the coast of Mexico between 94W-98W. Another
surface trough extends from inland central Florida near 29N82.5W
southward to just north of western Cuba near 23N83W. Scattered
moderate convection shifting westward is within 120 nm west of
this trough. Otherwise, convection is widely isolated throughout
the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over
the Gulf through the forecast period, maintaining to gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the basin.

Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean increase to fresh in
the central basin, with an area of strong easterly winds near
Cabo Beata. The earlier fresh to strong northeast winds in the
Windward Passage area have diminished to mainly fresh speeds per
the latest ASCAT data pass. Fresh northeast to east winds are in
the lee of Cuba. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere. An
overnight altimeter data pass indicated 4-6 ft seas south of
Hispaniola near the strong winds. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
throughout the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving westward are in the lee Cuba extending
westward to 85W and south to near 18N. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are just south of Hispaniola between
70W-74W, and over and near the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds across the
Windward Passage and vicinity will diminish this morning.
Otherwise, surface ridging north of the area will continue to
support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate
winds will continue across the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a large upper-level low slowly moving
westward is observed on water vapor imagery to be near 24N60W.
At the surface, a trough extends from 29N59W to 18N60W, also
slowly moving westward. Numerous moderate convection is present
from 20N to 28N between 56W-63W. An area of scattered showers
and thunderstorms is evident to the west from 25N to 29N and
between 65W-77W. It is moving westward. The remainder of the
western Atlantic is dominated by a high pressure ridge extending
from the Azores to across northern Florida and to the northern
Gulf of Mexico. Winds are gentle within the ridge axis with
moderate easterlies to the south. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. In
the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh, northeast in
direction. An overnight ASCAT data pass revealed strong winds
funneling through the Canary Island gaps. Seas are 6-8 ft east of
35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging extending
from Bermuda to northern Florida will change little through
tonight allowing for moderate to fresh easterly winds south of
22N. A weak surface trough will move westward from 65W to 75W
today accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The trough will weaken the ridge, allowing for
winds to diminish by Wed. Afterwards, relatively weak high
pressure will be present over the area through the end of the
week.

$$
Aguirre
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