[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220400
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 28W from 09 to 22N, moving W at 15
kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near
16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 17N,
between 27W and 30W. Environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system while it moves W-WNW at 10-15 kt
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic for the next
several days. Currently, this system has a low chance of
tropical cyclone development through 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W from 07N to
21N, moving W at 15 kt. A recent scatterometer pass found a
subtle shift in the surface winds, though convection remains
limited near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 78W from 06N to
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
observed throughout the central Caribbean with the strongest
convection south of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W to 09N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09N50W to 06N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N,
between 30W and 40W. Isolated weak convection is observed within
180 nm of these boundaries with similar convection within 240 nm
of the Windward Islands.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a 1018
mb high pressure centered over the NE basin. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow dominates the Gulf with 2-4 ft seas
throughout. A surface trough across the Yucatan Peninsula is
inducing a line of strong thunderstorms that are entering the
eastern Bay of Campeche tonight. Scattered moderate convection
is also observed within 120 nm of Tampa Bay. Otherwise,
convection is widely isolated throughout the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over
the Gulf through the forecast period, maintaining to gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on the
tropical wave moving across the basin.

Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean increase to fresh in
the central basin, with an area of strong easterly winds near
Cabo Beata. Moderate to fresh winds are also likely in the
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Winds are gentle to
moderate elsewhere. A recent altimeter pass found 4-6 ft seas
south of Hispaniola near the strong winds. Seas are in the 3-5
ft range throughout the remainder of the basin. Scattered
moderate convection continues over the Greater Antilles with
isolated thunderstorms throughout the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage overnight tonight. Elsewhere,
surface ridging north of the area will continue to support
moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate
winds continue across the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a surface trough extends along 59W,
from 23N to 31N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
21N to 27N, between 56W and 60W associated with this feature.
The remainder of the western Atlantic is dominated by a high
pressure ridge extending from the Azores to NE Florida. Winds
are gentle within the ridge axis with moderate easterlies to the
south. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. In the eastern Atlantic,
winds are moderate to fresh from the NE. A recent scatterometer
pass found strong winds funneling through the Canary Island
gaps. Seas are 6-8 ft east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical surface ridge
extends from Bermuda to northern Florida, supporting moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 22N through tonight. A weak
surface trough will move westward from 65W to 75W on Mon. The
trough will weaken the ridge, allowing for winds to diminish by
mid-week.

$$
FLYNN
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