[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 23W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is east of
the wave axis near 16N20W. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the low and wave axis from 04N-10N between 16W-26W,
and from 15N-20N between 16W-21W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W from 24N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
in the vicinity of the wave axis mainly N of 20N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W from
17N southward to northern Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion
affecting northern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 82W from 21N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of 10N between 80W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 09N38W. The ITCZ is not present at this time.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, no significant convection is present at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since this
morning over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with
a broad low pressure area centered near 28N96W. THe convection is
noted N of 24N and W of 91W. A surface trough extends from
29N93W to the low to 25N97W. Surface pressures remain high and
any additional development should be slow to occur while the
system moves slowly WSW and approaches the Texas coast tonight.
The disturbance is forecast to move inland over southern Texas on
Sunday morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the
weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service office. Formation chances remain low within the
next 48 hours and next 5 days.

High pressure extends across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle
to moderate cyclonic winds are noted along this broad low with
light winds elsewhere. Seas range 2 to 3 ft across the basin.

For the forecast outside of the broad low in the NW Gulf,
strengthening surface ridge across the central and east-central
Gulf will cause moderate NE to E winds west of the Yucatan
Peninsula to pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and
evenings through Tue. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front is
expected to stall along the northern Gulf coast from New Orleans
to northern Florida through Sun evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the Greater Antilles and Central America due to daytime
heating. The latest ASCAT depicts light to gentle winds across
the basin with moderate winds in the central basin with seas
ranging 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will drift
southward and weaken through early next week. Moderate trade
winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Mon.
Afterward, these trades should become fresh to strong as the
high builds southwestward. A broad surface trough related to a
tropical wave over the western Atlantic is approaching the Lesser
Antilles this evening, increasing the chance of showers and
thunderstorms there. It will then reach the eastern Caribbean Sun
through early Mon, then the central Caribbean Mon through late
Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a
1024 mb high centered near 31N45W. A surface trough is noted off
the Florida coast from 30N79W to 28N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the Florida Peninsula and the western
Atlantic waters mainly W of 70W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted across the central Atlantic N of 25N between 47W and 53W.
Light to gentle winds are noted across the SW N Atlantic with
seas 1-3 ft. Gentle to moderate winds across the central and
eastern Atlantic with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, frontal boundary moving slowly eastward
off the southeast U.S. coast will maintain showers and
thunderstorms offshore from northern and central Florida through
tonight, then spread southward to the offshore waters of
southeastern Florida and over the Bahamas Sun through Mon. A
broad tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is going to
trigger passing showers and higher seas over the nearby Atlantic
waters through early Mon morning. During midweek, a cold front
will exit the Georgia/northern Florida coast and gradually
weaken.

$$
ERA
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