[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Aug 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 22W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is east of
the wave axis near 15N20W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from n12N to 20N between 18W and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 55W from 24N
southward, moving W at 15 kt.  A large plume of atmospheric
moisture accompanies this wave between 52W and 57W, as noted in
Precipitable Water imagery, while Saharan Air dominates the
environment to its east. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 15N between 50W and 58W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W from
19N southward to northern Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between
64W and 66W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 81W from 21N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 15N between 78W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 11N26W to 11N40W. The ITCZ is not present at this
time. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N
between 15W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends across most of the Gulf of Mexico. A broad
1013 mb low is analyzed off of the Texas coast near 28N94W with
a trough extending from the central Louisiana coast near 29N92W
to the south Texas coast near 25N97W.  Low to middle level
cyclonic turning across the NW Gulf continues to produce moisture
convergence. Scattered moderate to isolate strong convection is
noted from 21N to 29N between 91W and 97W. Gentle to moderate
cyclonic winds are noted along this broad low with light winds
elsewhere. Seas range 2 to 3 ft across the basin.

For the broad low in the NW Gulf, shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased since early this  morning over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. However, surface pressures remain high and any
additional development should be slow to occur while the system
moves slowly west-southwestward and approaches the Texas coast
later today and tonight. The disturbance is forecast to move
inland over southern Texas on Sunday morning. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of
the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about
the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office and the Weather
Prediction Center. Formation chances remain low within the next 48
hours and next 5 days.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge extends west-southwestward
from the Florida Big Bend area to central Mexico. It will
strengthen a bit while sinking southward to near 28N Sun through
Tue. Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during the late
afternoon and evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early
next week. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary is expected to stall
just north of the central and NE Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
across Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti in addition to offshore Honduras
and Nicaragua due to the influences of upper-level troughing and
a tropical wave in the area. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough from 10N
to 13N between 74W and 77W. The latest ASCAT depicts light to
gentle winds across the basin with moderate winds in the central
basin with seas ranging 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will drift
southward and weaken through early next week. Moderate trade
winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Mon, then
increase to fresh by Tue. A broad surface trough accompanying a
tropical wave over the western Atlantic will move across the
Lesser Antilles this evening, the eastern Caribbean early Sun
through early Mon, then the central Caribbean Mon through late
Wed. Trade winds will strengthen late Tue through Wed as high
pressure repositions near 27N65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface ridge axis extends from a 1024 mb high pressure near
36N39W to 31N62W to a 1017 mb high pressure in the NE Gulf near
30N86W. A trough is noted off the Florida coast from 30N76W to
28N79W with scattered moderate convection across the SW N
Atlantic from 24N to 31N between 69W and 81W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted across the central
Atlantic from 25N to 31N between 45W and 53W. Light to gentle
winds are noted across the SW N Atlantic with seas 1-3 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds across the central and eastern Atlantic
with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a narrow ridge extends from the
central Atlantic W-SW to northern Florida along 29N, and will
weaken and sink southward through early next week as a frontal
boundary moving off the SE U.S coast stalls just N of the area.
Moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N will veer to the SE and weaken
to gentle to moderate later this afternoon and change little
through Wed. A broad tropical wave will approach the Lesser
Antilles through this evening, bringing a slight increase in winds
and seas east these islands tonight through early Mon. A cold
front will move over the waters northeast of NE Florida late Tue,
then stall and weaken through Wed night.

$$
AReinhart
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