[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Aug 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, from 21N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 38W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 545, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No significant convection is
noted with the wave at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No significant convection is
noted with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 12N23W to 13N35W to 10N52W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the the tropical waves section above, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N east
of 21W, and from 05N to 11N between 28W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the NW Gulf. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough.
Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf. Seas are in the
1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, weak high pressure extending from the western
Atlantic to the central Gulf will shift east-southeast late Fri
through Sun. This will allow for gentle to moderate winds over
the basin to weaken to light to gentle into next week. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds will pulse during the late afternoon and
evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early next week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over mainly the
northern Gulf waters through at least the upcoming weekend as a
frontal boundary stalls near the northern Gulf coast. Expect
gusty winds and rough seas with this activity.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range
over the central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and
3-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will weaken
through early next week. Fresh east winds over the central
Caribbean will weaken to moderate late Sun through Mon, then
increase back to fresh late Mon through Tue night. Winds will
reach gentle to moderate speeds over the area on Fri, with little
change through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A couple of weak surface troughs are noted north of 29N, one near
42W and one near 60W. Scattered moderate showers are in the
vicinity of the wave. High pressure prevails across the remainder
of the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted south of 22N and west of 70W as well as N
of 20N and E of 50W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
north of 20N. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range in the area of light
to gentle winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere N of 20N. Over the tropical
waters south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridging over the
northern waters will weaken through early next week as a frontal
boundary approaches from the northwest and stalls over the waters
east of NE Florida. Moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N will
weaken to gentle speeds Sat and change little into next week.
Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through the
period. Otherwise, a tropical wave will reach the southeast
forecast waters by Sat, which will bring a slight increase in
winds and seas over those waters through early on Mon.

$$
AL
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