[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 40W, from 21N southward, moving westward
at 15-20 knots. Shower activity is limited, and development of
this system is not expected due to unfavorable environmental
conditions.

A tropical wave is along 54W, from 20N southward, moving westward
at 10-15 knots. No significant convection is noted with the wave
at this time.

A tropical wave is near 67W, from 20N southward, moving westward
at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
Caribbean SSE of Puerto Rico, from 16N to 18N between 64W and
67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 11N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N
to 12N east of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
11N between 27W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is underway across the N Gulf, near
a surface trough analyzed just inland. The scattered moderate
convection is north of 27N, from Florida to Texas. Some slight mid
to upper level divergence is likely enhancing the convection. Weak
ridging is analyzed over the remainder of the Gulf. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds prevail across Gulf waters, with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will maintain a
gentle to moderate wind flow over most of the basin through Fri.
The ridge will then weaken allowing for winds to become light to
gentle through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to
locally fresh in the evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data depicts mainly moderate trades
across the central and SW Caribbean, and satellite altimeter this
morning confirmed seas of 4-6 ft. Within 60 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 74W and 76W, seas are 6-8 ft with locally fresh
trades. Moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas are noted in the E
Caribbean. In the NW Caribbean, trades and gentle to moderate with
2-4 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection, associated with the
extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW
Caribbean from 09N to 11N between 76W and 79W. Additional
scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N west of 82W,
becoming scattered moderate isolated strong inland over Nicaragua.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will weaken
through tonight. The associated gradient will maintain mainly
moderate to fresh easterly winds across the central and
southwestern Caribbean through tonight as a tropical wave also
moves through this part of the Caribbean. Winds will reach gentle
to moderate speeds over the area on Fri, with little change
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores high remains in force across the discussion
waters. 1021 mb high pressure is centered in the W Atlantic near
29N76W. The latest scatterometer from this morning depicts fresh
to strong NE winds from 18N to 23N east of 23W to the coast of
Africa. A satellite altimeter pass confirmed 7-10 ft seas in NE
swell in this area. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades are west of
50W, with gentle to moderate NE to E winds east of 50W except for
the aforementioned area near the coast of Africa. Seas are 2-4 ft
north of 20N and west of 55W, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere in open
waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridging over the
northern waters will weaken through tonight. Moderate to fresh
east winds S of 25N will weaken to gentle speeds Sat and change
little into next week. Light to gentle variable winds are expected
elsewhere through the period. Otherwise, a tropical wave will
reach the southeast forecast waters by Sat, which will bring a
slight increase in winds and seas over those waters through early
on Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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