[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 27W from 20N southward through a 1010 mb low at
12N27W, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 15N between 25W and 32W.
Some gradual development of this system is possible and there is a
slight chance that a tropical depression could form over the next
couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions will become
less favorable.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers are observed east
of the wave axis from 08N to 17N between 37W and 41W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles
near 54W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered showers are seen from 11N to 15N between 50W and 57W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from near the Cayman
Islands southward across Panama into the East Pacific, and moving
west at 15 kt. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are
present from the Island of Youth southwestward to the Honduras
coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal
border across a 1010 mb low at 12N27W to 12N49W. In addition to
the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed above,
scattered showers are seen south of the trough from 07N to 12N
between the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea coast and 25W. There is no ITCZ
present based on the latest analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough over the north-central and central Gulf is
coupling with convergent ESE winds to trigger scattered showers
and thunderstorms east of 92W from 23N to the Gulf States coast,
including the Florida west coast and Florida Keys. The northern
tip of a tropical wave extending northward from the East
Pacific/southern Mexico is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf. A weak surface
ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1021 mb high over the
Georgia-Florida border to near Tampico, Mexico. It is sustaining
gentle E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas across most of the Gulf,
except the Florida Straits which are experiencing moderate ESE
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the northern tip of the tropical wave will
maintain active weather across the SW Gulf through this afternoon.
The surface ridge will remain across the northern Gulf through
late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Moderate ENE to E winds will
briefly pulse to fresh in the eastern Bay of Campeche through Wed
night. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are also expected across
the Florida Straits and portions of the SE Gulf through Wed.
Otherwise, the mid-level trough will continue to enhance showers
and isolated thunderstorms east of 92W through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the central basin near 14N71W eastward through
the Windward Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean
Basin. Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
monsoon trough near Panama/northwestern Colombia continues to
promote a NE to E trade-wind regime for much of the basin, except
monsoonal winds near Panama. Moderate to fresh with locally strong
winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft exist over the central basin. Gentle
to moderate winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are evident for the
northwestern basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4
to 5 ft are found in the offshore waters of Panama. Moderate with
locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will remain nearly stationary
through Wed before shifting W and weakening. Fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Wed then
gradually diminish to fresh through Thu night. The tropical wave
near 80W will continue to bring sporadic convection while moving
westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Another
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean on Wed enhancing
winds/seas. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail from Fri
through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
significant weather in the Atlantic Basin. The combination of the
Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to maintain light to gentle
winds and 4 to 5 ft seas north of 25N between 35W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. NE to ENE gentle to moderate trades and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are found farther south from 12N to 25N between
35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, and farther east from 15N to
31N between 25W and 35W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to
fresh NNE to NE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are present north of 21N
between the northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate
monsoonal and southeasterly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain
centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region
through Wed before shifting W and weakening. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the
Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours
through Wed night.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net