[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 25/26W, from 04N to 18N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to
15N, between 22W and 30W. Gradual development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form around the middle to
latter portion of the week before environmental conditions become
less favorable by this weekend.

A tropical wave extends along 41W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 17N,
between 35W and 43W.

A tropical wave extends along 54W, from 06N to 19N moving W at 15
kt. There is no convection associated with this wave.

A tropical wave extends along 78W, S of 20N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the wave in the
NW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 11N26W to 13N41W to
10N50W. In addition to the convection associated with the
tropical waves discussed above, scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 14N between 13N and 20N. Numerous moderate
convection is from 07N to 14N between 30W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern portion of a tropical wave moving across the Bay of
Campeche continues to generate active weather across the SW Gulf this
morning. Moisture inflow from the Caribbean and a middle-level
trough over the eastern half of the basin continue to support
scattered showers and tstms in that region, including the Straits
of Florida and the Yucatan channel. Otherwise, the Bermuda high
continues to extend a ridge across the basin, which is supporting
mainly light to gentle return flow, except for the Straits of
Florida and the far SE gulf where moderate to fresh easterly winds
prevail.

For the forecast, the northern portion of the tropical wave will
maintain active weather across the SW Gulf through late this
morning. The Atlantic surface ridge will extend W along about 31N
through late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Moderate NE to E winds
will briefly pulse to fresh in the eastern Bay of Campeche
through Wed night. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are also
expected across the Florida straits and portions of the SE Gulf
through Wed. Otherwise, a middle-level trough across the eastern
half of the basin will continue to enhance showers and isolated
thunderstorms in that region through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly
trade winds across the basin. Winds are fresh in the eastern
basin with 5-7 ft seas, fresh to strong in the central basin
with 7-10 ft seas, and moderate in the NW basin with 3 ft seas.
Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are throughout the NW
Caribbean associated with a tropical wave.

For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will
remain nearly stationary through early Wed before shifting WSW and
weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to fresh
through Thu night. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean near
78W and accompanied by active weather will continue to move
westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Active
weather will accompany another tropical wave entering the tropical
N Atlc waters late Thu. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds
are forecast Fri through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high continues to dominate the pattern in the
western Atlantic, which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE
winds W of 55W, except S of 25N and W of 70W where fresh to
locally strong winds prevail. Winds are gentle to moderate in the
central Atlantic with seas to 5 ft while in the eastern
subtropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds with seas to 7 ft
dominate. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are in the Great
Bahama Bank.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain
centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region
through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through early Wed before
diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola
and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late
afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night.

$$
Ramos
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