[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030934
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed tropical wave is along 17W south of 23N, moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring near the coast
Guinea-Bissau.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is evident
near this tropical wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
seen from 09N to 11N between 49W and 52W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 18N southward
through eastern Honduras and Nicaragua to Costa Rica and into the
East Pacific, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is evident near this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara-
Mauritania border, passing near the Cabo Verde Islands to 08N35W.
No significant convection is associated with the monsoon trough.
An ITCZ continues from 09N35W to 11N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 11N to 13N between 43W and 47W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms in a line from
the coast of Colombia to off the coast of Panama, to the Costa
Rica/Nicaragua border.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends from 1018 mb high pressure centered over the
northeast Gulf near 29N85W to coast of Tamaulipas. Observations
along the coast of Texas are showing 20 kt SE winds on the western
edge of this ridge. But elsewhere this pattern is supporting
light breezes and slight seas over the northeast Gulf, and mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas
elsewhere. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has been moving
across the Bay of Campeche, and is now active off Veracruz but
shrinking in size.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the
northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas across most of the Gulf into Sun. Fresh E winds will briefly
pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the
Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago indicated
fresh to strong NE winds off Colombia where seas may be 7 to 9 ft.
Fresh to strong winds were also evident in the Gulf of Venezuela,
and fresh NE winds across the Windward Passage and over the Gulf
of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle
NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the northwest Caribbean.
Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are evident over the
southwest Caribbean from the coast of Colombia to off the coast
of Panama, to the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over
the central Caribbean are starting to diminish, but will freshen
slightly over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwest
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active about 300 nm
south of Bermuda, associated with a broad upper-level low centered
near 23N63W. A surface trough is also associated with the upper
low along 62W/63W from 22N to 30N. The trough as been drifting
westward over the past couple of days, displacing a surface ridge
that has been oriented along 30N, but is not starting to lift
northward ahead of the trough. The ridge now extends from 1021 mb
high pressure area over Bermuda to northeast Florida. The
displacement northward has allowed strong E winds off Hispaniola
to diminish slightly, however moderate to fresh NE to E winds
persist south of 25N west of 55W, with 3 to 5 ft seas except for
up to 6 ft off Hispaniola near the entrances to the Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted north of 25N
west of 55W. Farther east, moderate NE winds are noted with 5 to 7
ft seas, except for higher winds/seas off northwest Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along roughly 30N lifting
north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds
and slight to moderate seas over most of the area through Sun.
Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north
of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoons and overnight hours through late Sun.

$$
Christensen
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