[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed tropical wave is along the northwest African
coast from southern Sahara southward to offshore of Sierra Leone,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring near
the coast from Senegal southward to Guinea.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 20N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 10N between 26W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
seen from 05N to 12N between 48W and 53W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 18N southward
parallel to the Nicaragua coast across Costa Rica into the East
Pacific, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present near the Costa Rica-Panama
border and nearby Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara-
Mauritania border, passing near the Cabo Verde Islands at 15N23W
to 09N35W. Other than the convection related to the tropical
waves, no significant convection is associated with the monsoon
trough. An ITCZ continues from 09N35W to 11N48W, then resumes from
09N52W to southeast of Trinidad and Tobago at 09N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident up to 110 nm along either side of
the ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near the coast
of Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough along the Florida east coast is causing
scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Florida and near
the Florida southwest coast. Convergent surface winds are
generating similar conditions in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A
broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near
the Florida Panhandle to south of Tampico, Mexico. It will
supporting light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas across north-
central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly
winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the
week. Fresh E winds will briefly pulse west of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evening hours through midweek due to a
diurnal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in
the Caribbean Basin. The Bermuda High sustains a trade-wind regime
across the entire basin. Fresh to strong E to ENE winds and seas
at 7 to 10 ft exist across the south-central basin, north of
Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are
present over the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in easterly swell are found along the
offshore waters of Panama. Moderate to locally fresh winds with 5
to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over
the central Caribbean are starting to diminish this morning, but
will freshen slightly over the eastern Caribbean through Sun.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the
northwest Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An broad upper-level low southeast of Bermuda near 23N63W is
triggering scattered moderate convection from 24N to 30W between
62W and 66W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin. The
Bermuda High is promoting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas
north of 22N between 42W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to
moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted farther
south from 10N to 22N between 42W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles
and farther east, north of 12N between 26W and 42W. Moderate to
fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
present near the Canary Islands north of 23N between the
northwest African coast and 26W. Light to gentle monsoonal and
southeasterly winds with 4 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge related to the Bermuda High
will prevail along 30N through tonight, then will lift north of
the area, maintaining gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight
to moderate seas over most of the area through Sun. Farther south,
fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and
overnight hours through late Sun.

$$

Chan
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