[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 29W from
03N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N to
11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 49W, from
02N-20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed within 330 nm E of the wave axis from 09.5N to 13N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 81/82W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated
strong convection is observed within 270 nm either side of the
wave axis south of 14.5N, covering much of the southwest
Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, NW Colombia and portions of
Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W through the Cabo Verde Islands near 15N24W to 12N29W to
11N40W. The ITCZ continues from 11N40W to 11N47W, then resumes
from 10N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned
above, isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted within
150 nm N and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, anchored
by a 1020 mb high pressure near the Mouth of the Mississippi
River. An upper-level trough axis is oriented east-west across
the northern Gulf Coast.  As a result, upper-level diffluence is
enhancing scattered thunderstorms over portions of the northern
Gulf of Mexico, most concentrated from 26N-28N between
84.5W-91W. Outside of the thunderstorms, mainly gentle winds
prevail across the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft over the northeastern
Gulf, increasing slightly to 2-4 ft over the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the
northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas across most of the Gulf through the week. Fresh E winds
will briefly pulse during the evening hours through mid week
west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong
easterly trade wind flow across the south-central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area.
Moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas are occurring elsewhere. Some
thunderstorms from afternoon heating are noted over western Cuba
and over Haiti. Most of the areas over water are free of
precipitation except for the SW Caribbean, south of 14.5N and
west of 76W, due to the combination of a tropical wave and the
east Pacific monsoon trough in the area.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will
diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience
moderate to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can
expect mainly gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low is in the vicinity of 22N62W, while a
north-south oriented surface trough is in the same area, along
60W from 19N to 28N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
noted from 20N-30N between 59W-66W. Mainly fair weather due to
high pressure ridging prevails elsewhere across the Atlantic,
north of 20N. The subtropical ridge extends from 1024 mb high
pressure near the Azores to 1021 mb high pressure just SW of
Bermuda near 30N70W to central Florida to the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Light to gentle winds and 3-4 ft seas are near the ridge
axis. Mainly moderate trades and 5-6 ft seas prevail across the
tropical Atlantic from 11N-20N. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
are likely occurring near the Canary Islands and near the coast
of Western Sahara, where seas are up to 7-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will prevail along 30N
through tonight, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons
and overnight hours during mid to late week.

$$
HAGEN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net