[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W, from 20N to
03N, moving west at 20 kt. An elongated circulation is centered
along the tropical wave near 14N27W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N to 11N, between 24W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W, from from 20N
to 02N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed
from 09N to 11N, between 45W and 49W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 79W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 25 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated
strong convection is observed in the southwest Caribbean from 10N
to 14N, between 77W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
21N16W to 11N40W. The ITCZ continues from 11N40W to 11N45W where
the large scale convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical
wave. the ITCZ continues west of the wave from 10N50W to 08N59W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough
from 09N to 11N, between 32W and 36W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed along the ITCZ from 08N to 11N, between 51W
and 59W.

A segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the
southwest Caribbean, enhancing convection in the region.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the northern Gulf,
causing mainly gentle to moderate winds throughout the basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed within 120 nm of
the central U.S. Gulf coast due to moist onshore flow north of the
ridge axis. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf and 2-4 ft in the SW
Gulf.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the
northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas across most of the Gulf through the week. Fresh E winds will
briefly pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of
the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly trade
wind flow across the basin. Winds strong in the SW Caribbean with
8-11 ft seas. The Maersk Memphis container ship reported a
significant wave height of 11 ft near 13N78W at 1200 UTC. Winds
are fresh in the central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Winds are
moderate in the eastern and NW Caribbean with 4-6 ft seas. The
combination of an upper level low, the monsoon trough and a
tropical wave embedded in a moist environment is supporting
numerous moderate with isolated strong convection in the southwest
Caribbean from 10N to 14N, between 77W and 84W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will
diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience
moderate to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can
expect mainly gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Favorable marine conditions prevail across the western Atlantic.
A ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure centered near the
Azores to central Florida. Winds within the ridge are gentle,
increasing to moderate easterlies south of 25N. Seas are 3-5 ft.
In the eastern Atlantic, lower pressure over NW Africa is creating
a tighter gradient. NE winds are moderate to fresh, with a recent
scatterometer pass finding strong gap winds between the Canary
Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will prevail along 30N
through tonight, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the
Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours
during the mid to late week.

$$
FLYNN
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