[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272244
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

EAST-ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: In response to a trough of low
pressure in Morocco, gale force NW winds will develop Thu morning
offshore Morocco and prevail through at least Thu night, over the
Agadir region. For details, please read the High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website
http:///weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from
04N23W to 00N33W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
from 05N to 07N between 14W and 17W. Another area of convection
is observed within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 33W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Ceder Key, Florida, to near
28N86W. Convection previously associated with this weakening
boundary has dissipated this afternoon. A surface trough
stretches along the eastern coast of Mexico and is supporting
scattered showers within 90 nm of the coast. Mainly gentle to
moderate NE to E winds cover the basin, except for locally fresh
NE winds offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas across the basin are
2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf. Haze is noted in the
Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf, although reductions in visibilities
are not as much as previous evenings.

For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate
tonight. High pressure will build into the region by the end of
the week into the weekend. Fresh to locally strong offshore winds
will pulse north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula Sun evening.
Hazy conditions remain possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of
Campeche tonight due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean Sea,
mainly S of 15N and W of 76W. Convection along the coasts of
Venezuela and Colombia is now primarily inland. Fresh to strong
NE-E winds are across the approach and through the Windward
Passage and in the south- central Caribbean offshore of northern
Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except
gentle to moderate NE to E winds are occurring in the NW basin.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft across most of the basin, with 3 to 5 ft seas
dominating the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure positioned north of the Caribbean Sea
will continue to sustain pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola during
the next few days. Similar conditions will occur tonight near the
northern coast of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in the SW
Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the
SW Caribbean into Thursday. Northerly swell will move into
Atlantic waters and through Caribbean passages through the end of
the week. A surge of wind will accompany a trough that will move
through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
developing Gale conditions NE of the Canary Islands.

A cold front offshore Florida has now stalled, and stretches from
31N75W to around Daytona Beach, Florida. A pre-frontal trough is
noted from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection
has developed in association with these features, N of 28N between
74W and 79W. High pressure of 1018 mb centered near 27N72W
dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic allowing for
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are occurring NW of the frontal boundary. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are
between 65W and 77W, and 3 to 5 ft west of 77W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N32W to 18N50W to the
Leeward Islands where the front is dissipating. A trough extends
ahead of this front from 18N45W to near Trinidad. Scattered
moderate convection extends along and about 120 nm in advance of
the cold front, N of 16N and E of 50W. N of 25N and E of 55W,
behind the front, strong W to NW winds prevail, with areas N of
25N having strong SW winds ahead of it. Following the front, 11 to
16 ft seas prevail, with areas ahead of the front in the region of
strong winds having seas of 8 to 11 ft. Seas are greater than 8 ft
for most areas N of 20N and E of 60W. Areas to the S are having
moderate to fresh trades with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front off NE Florida will
move southeastward across the forecast waters while weakening
through the end of the week. Fresh N winds are expected behind the
front. Farther east, the dissipating cold front extending from
18N55W to 17N62W will continue southeastward while weakening. Seas
of 8 ft or greater in N to NE swell, east of 65W, will continue
through Thu before subsiding by the end of the week. A trough is
expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 22N and
east of 70W this weekend.

$$
Konarik
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