[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from
04N23W to 00N33W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
from 05N to 07N between 14W and 17W. Another area of convection
is observed within 180 nm of the ITCZ between 33W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Cedar Key, Florida to the
northern-central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are observed within 60 nm of the boundary. A
surface trough stretches along the eastern coast of Mexico and
is supporting scattered showers within 90 nm of the coast.
Mainly gentle to moderate E winds cover the basin, except for
locally fresh NE winds in the coastal waters behind the front.
Recent Buoy data reveals 2 to 4 ft seas across the Gulf. 5 ft
seas are possible west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Haze is noted
in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf, although reductions in
visibilities are not as much as previous evenings.

For the forecast, the stationary front will stall across the
eastern Gulf this afternoon while gradually dissipating. High
pressure will return for the end of the week into the weekend.
Winds will pulse to fresh and strong offshore north and west of
the Yucatan Peninsula Sun evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea,
primarily south of 15N and west of 76W. Deep convection is also
across much of northern and central Venezuela, and portions of
Colombia. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are blowing south of
Hispaniola, across the approach and through the Windward
Passage, and in the south-central Caribbean offshore of northern
Colombia. Fresh NE winds were noted in recent scatterometer data
over the SW Caribbean within the areas of convection and in the
lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
5 to 7 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as up to
6 ft within the windward passage. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola, primarily at night,
during the next several days. Similar conditions will occur
tonight near the northern coast of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds
in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are
expected in the SW Caribbean today. Northerly swell will move into
Atlantic waters and through Caribbean passages through the end of
the week. A surge of wind will accompany a trough that will move
through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The gale warning in the central Atlantic has expired. A cold
front moving off the NE Florida coast is producing moderate to
fresh W winds north of the Bahamas between 76W and the east
coast of Florida. High pressure of 1020 mb centered near 27N70W
dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic allowing for
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are
between 70W and 77W, and 3 to 5 ft west of 77W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N35W to 20N50W to the
Leeward Islands where the front is dissipating. Scatterometer
data from this morning notes fresh to strong SW winds ahead of
the front north of 20N and west of 28W. Fresh to strong NW to W
winds are behind the front north of 24N and east of 58W. Mainly
strong winds are north of 28N. Rough seas follow the front, east
of 65W reaching offshore the northern Lesser Antilles with
heights of 8 to 9 ft noted in buoy data. 10 to 15 ft seas are
noted north of 25N. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong
NE winds are between the coast of Africa, over the Cabo Verde
Islands to 28W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue
moving offshore of N Florida, slowly sagging south while
weakening through the end of the week. An old cold front
currently from 18N55W to 18N62W will continue southeastward
while weakening. Associated fresh to strong winds north of 27N
and east of 60W will diminish today, while seas of 8 ft or greater
in NE swell east of 70W gradually subside through the end of the
week. The remnants of the front in the form of a NE to SW trough
may move into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this
weekend.

$$
Mora
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