[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262230
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N42W to
20N60W to 27N70W. A broad area of strong to near gale NW winds
exists behind the front, and periods of NW gales can be expected
into Wed for areas behind the front and E of 50W. In addition,
gale force SW winds have developed within about 180 nm ahead of
the front, to the E of 45W. These winds will also continue into
Wed. Seas and near the areas of gales will range from 12 to 17 ft.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 12N26W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring S of 07N and E of 27W. Scattered
convection is observed S of 02N and between 40W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to near
Brownsville, Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection continues to impact areas along and south of the front,
mainly within 100 nm of the Texas and northern Mexico coasts.
The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge
centered east of Florida, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Mainly moderate winds prevail over the basin, but some
fresh winds are occurring within 90 nm of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Seas of 3-5 ft are noted across the basin, except for 1-3 ft in
the NE Gulf.

Haze and reduced visibilities due to ongoing agricultural fires
in portions of Mexico and northern Central America continue across
the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dig a bit
more southward tonight, then stall across the central Gulf through
Wed then dissipate. Winds will pulse to fresh and strong offshore
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba this
evening. High pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy
conditions remain possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche
early this evening due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered
showers across the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily S of 12N as well as
within 60 nm of the Nicaraguan and Honduran coasts. The rest of
the basin experiences fairly tranquil weather conditions as a
ridge centered N of the region dominates. Fresh to locally
strong trades are affecting the offshore waters of southern
Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Mainly moderate
winds are ongoing elsewhere, although fresh winds have also
developed offshore N Colombia. Seas are 3-6 ft across the
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea
will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near
the coast of Colombia during the night through Wed night.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will
prevail, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic
showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Cuba, near
Jamaica and Haiti through this evening. Northerly swell will
move into Atlantic waters and through Atlantic passages by the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warnings currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 25N between 41W and
47W in association with the cold front described in the Special
Features section. Farther south, a surface trough is located
from 15N56W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 10N to 17N and between 49W and 61W. The rest of the basin is
dominated by the Bermuda high centered near 29N75W and the Azores
high near 30N23W, providing fairly tranquil weather conditions.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail in the rest of
the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue
southeastward, with winds and seas building in its wake. Winds and
seas behind this front will continue to gradually subside through
Wed morning. Meanwhile, high pressure will prevail west of 70W
through tonight. A cold front will move offshore of N Florida Wed
morning, slowly sagging south while weakening through the end of
the week.

$$
Konarik
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