[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261638
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front extends
from 31N47W to 23N60W to 31N72W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass depict a large area of strong to near gale-force winds behind
the cold front. Seas of 8 ft or greater are found following the
frontal boundary. S-SW winds ahead of the front are forecast to
increase to gale-force this afternoon and lift north of 31N by
late tonight into early Wed. Very large seas will continue to
spread across the open central Atlantic, peaking around 17 ft
near 31N between 50W and 55W tonight through Wed.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring S of 07N and E of 29W. Scattered
convection is observed S of 02N and between 40W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the coast of Alabama, cuts across the
Mississippi delta, to the southern coast of Texas. Strong showers
and thunderstorms are affecting southern Texas and NE Mexico and
some of the activity extends into western Gulf, mainly within 100
nm of the coast. The rest of the basin is dominated by a
subtropical ridge positioned east of Florida, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong easterly
winds are occurring off the Texas and Tamaulipas coasts in
association with the frontal boundary and convection. Moderate or
weaker winds are found elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft are
noted across the basin, except for 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf.

Haze and reduced visibilities due to ongoing agricultural fires
in portions of Mexico and northern Central America continue across
the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress
slowly eastward-southeastward through tonight, then weaken across
the central Gulf through Wed. Winds will pulse to fresh and
strong offshore N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula, and W Cuba this
evening. High pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy
conditions remain possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche
today due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered
showers across the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily S of 12N. The rest
of the basin experiences fairly tranquil weather conditions as a
ridge located north of the region dominates. Fresh to locally
strong trades are affecting the offshore waters of southern
Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Moderate or
weaker winds are found elsewhere. Seas are 3-6 ft across the
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea
will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near
the coast of Colombia during the night through Wed night.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will
prevail, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic
showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Cuba, near
Jamaica and Haiti through this evening. Northerly swell will
move into Atlantic waters and through Atlantic passages  by the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warnings currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

The aforementioned reinforcing cold front extends from 31N47W
southwestward to 23N60W and then northwestward to 31N72W. A few
showers are seen ahead of the front, N of 29N. The remnant of the
previous cold front is analyzed as a surface trough from 31N40W
to 20N62W to 22N71W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show
fresh to near gale- force cyclonic winds south of the cold front
to 21N and between 40W to 67W. Seas of 8-12 ft are noted N of 22N
and between 38W and 70W.

Farther south, a surface trough is located from 15N57W to 10N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N to 10N and
between 56W and 61W. The rest of the basin is dominated by the
Bermuda high near 29N76W and the Azores high near 30N23W,
providing fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail in the rest of the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the reinforcing cold front will
continue southeastward, with winds and seas building in its wake.
Meanwhile, high pressure will prevail west of 70W through tonight.
A cold front will move offshore of N Florida early Wed, slowly
sagging south while weakening through the end of the week.

$$
DELGADO
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