[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260835
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A weakening leading cold front
extends from

while a reinforcing cold front extends from

Gale-force NW-N winds and large seas of 11 to 16 ft are following
the reinforcing front, with a larger area of fresh to near gale-
force winds and seas of 8 ft or greater surrounding it. The gale-
force winds west of the reinforcing front will diminish to strong
to near gale-force later this morning, with S-SW winds ahead of
the reinforcing front increasing to gale-force this afternoon. Any
gale-force winds are forecast to lift north of 31N by late tonight
into early Wed. Very large seas will continue to spread across the
open central Atlantic, peaking around 18 ft near 31N between 50W
and 55W tonight through Wed. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The Outlook for the Meteo-Francemarine
forecast consists of persistence or threat of northerly near
gale-force or gale-force winds in the areas of Agadir and Tarfaya.
Please refer to the latest Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
01S24W. The ITCZ continues from 01S24W to 03S35W to just northeast
of the coast of Brazil near the equator and 48W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N
between 23W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03S to 03N between 35W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved into the S-central Louisiana to southern
Texas coastal waters with moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6
ft seas behind it. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
are spreading across the NW and W-central Gulf associated with
this surface feature and mid-level support. Weak ridging prevails
ahead of the front with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and
2 to 4 ft seas in the NE and N-central Gulf due to ridging over
the southeastern United States, and moderate to fresh NE-E winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere ahead of the front. Haze and reduced
visibilities due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of
Mexico and northern Central America continue across the western
Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extending southwestward from a
high off the Georgia coast will weaken today as a cold front in
the NW Gulf coastal waters progresses slowly eastward. Winds will
pulse to fresh and strong offshore north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and western Cuba this evening. The cold front will
weaken across the central Gulf through Wed. Afterward, high
pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy conditions remain
possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche today due to smoke
from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An east to west surface trough extends from the far SW Caribbean
north of Panama to the Costa Rica and Panama border. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of
this trough, as well as offshore of Nicaragua to 80W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are blowing across the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except
light and variable in the far SW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in
the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near
the coast of Colombia during the night through Wed night.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail,
except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected south of Cuba, near Jamaica and Haiti
through this evening. Northerly swell will move into the Tropical
N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warnings currently in effect for the central and eastern
Atlantic.

High pressure centered near 31N75W is supporting gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow over the western Atlantic, north of the
Bahamas and west of 71W along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, with
moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the waters west of
68W, including the central and southern Bahamas to north of Cuba,
along with 4 to 6 ft seas.

Farther east, a dissipating cold front and reinforcing cold front
dominate the waters north of 20N between 68W and 40W with
associated conditions described with the central Atlantic Gale
Warning in the Special Features section above. A pair of weak 1016
mb highs are east-southeast of the fronts, with one west of the
Canary Islands near 29N26W and the other near 24N31W. A ridge axis
extends through the highs southwestward through 20N40W to near the
Anegada Passage, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds under
the ridge axis. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail
elsewhere, except fresh to strong from 11N to 16N between the
coast of Africa and 21W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in that area of fresh
to strong winds, and mainly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere over the open
tropical Atlantic waters outside of the fronts mentioned above.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted roughly from 08N to
17N between 52W and 62W in moist SW flow aloft associated with a
mid- level trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the reinforcing cold front will
continue southeastward, with winds and seas building in its wake.
Winds of gale-force north of 25N and east of 65W will shift
southeast of 55W later this morning. Meanwhile, high pressure will
prevail west of 70W through tonight. A cold front will move
offshore of N Florida early Wed, slowly sagging south while
weakening through the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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