[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The current marine forecast consists of a first cold front that
is along 31N42W 23N55W 24N69W. A second cold front is along
31N45W 27N55W 26N60W 31N70W. Expect NW to N gale-force winds,
and wave heights that range from 11 feet to 15 feet in N swell,
from 30N to 31N between 60W and 65W. The gale-force winds are
forecast to last for the next 24 hours or so. Please, refer to
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Gale-force winds for the METEO-FRANCE area:
The OUTLOOK for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of:
persistence or threat of northerly near gale-force
or gale-force winds in the areas: AGADIR, and TARFAYA. Please,
refer to the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N17W, to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W, to the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 42W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 03N
southward between 01W and 05W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 25W
and 30W, and from 01N southward between 41W and 45W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the area that
is from 10N southward from 60W eastward, especially from 50W
westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through SW Louisiana, into south central
Texas, through 27N100W in northern Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 130 nm to the south-
southeast of the cold front between 97W in the coastal plains of
Texas and Mexico and 101W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere from 23N to 30N between 93W and 102W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N to 29N between
86W and 88W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 90W eastward. This wind flow is related to a surface ridge,
that extends southwestward, from the 1021 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 31N74W.

The wave heights range from mainly 4 feet to 6 feet. The wave
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

Haze and reduced visibilities, due to ongoing agricultural fires
in parts of Mexico and northern Central America, continue in the
western Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extending southwestward from a high off the
Georgia coast will sustain moderate to fresh E to SE flow
through tonight. Winds will pulse between fresh and strong
offshore north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and western
Cuba early this evening and Tue evening. A cold front is
expected to enter the N Gulf Tue and then weaken across the
central Gulf through Wed. Afterward, high pressure will return
toward the weekend. Hazy conditions remain possible over the SW
Gulf and Bay of Campeche overnight into Tue due to smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Comparatively weaker middle level to upper level cyclonic wind
flow continues in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong accompanies
the cyclonic wind flow, from 15N northward from 74W westward.

Middle level upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough,
extends from the northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea into
the southwestern corner of the area. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N southward from
75W westward. The eastern end of the eastern Pacific Ocean
surface trough is along 09N/10N, through 90W to 78W. Earlier
convective precipitation, that was in the coastal waters of
Colombia near 73W, has been dissipating and weakening during the
last six hours or so.

Fresh NE to E trade winds are ongoing in the Windward Passage, S
of Cuba, S of Hispaniola, S of Jamaica, and offshore N Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere, except for light
and variable in the SW Caribbean Sea. The wave heights range
from 6 feet to 8 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, and from 3
feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

High pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support
pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of
Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near the coast
of Colombia during the night through Wed night. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except
gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected south of Cuba, near Jamaica and Haiti
through Tue evening. Northerly swell will move into the Tropical
N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds that are in the Atlantic Ocean.

A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 31N74W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 70W westward. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
wind flow is in the western Atlantic Ocean, and to the north of
the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh E winds are in the central and
southern Bahamas to the N of Cuba.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N41W to 24N50W 22N60W
24N70W. A second cold front passes through 31N44W to 28N50W
27N60W, curving northwestward beyond 31N70W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward
between 40W and 70W. Near gale-force to gale-force NW winds are
from the second cold front northward between 60W and 70W. Fresh
to strong NW winds are within 135 nm to the south of the second
cold front. Fresh westerly winds are from the second cold front
northward between 47W and 55W. Fresh NE winds are from 26N
southward from 70W westward. The wave heights range from 8 feet
to 13 feet from the dissipating front northward between 40W and
60W.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 20N southward between 50W and 63W in the eastern Caribbean
Sea. The precipitation is between a 700 mb NE Caribbean Sea
trough, and a tropical Atlantic Ocean middle level to upper
level ridge.

A surface ridge extends from one 1016 mb high pressure center
that is near 32N27W, to a second 1016 mb high pressure center
that is near 24N30W, to 17N40W and 17N60W.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N13W to 22N18W, in the
coastal waters of Africa. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 20N northward from 20W eastward.

A reinforcing cold front from 27N55W to 29N67W to 31N70W will
reach 26N late tonight, causing winds and seas to build across
the central Atlantic. Winds are forecast to reach gale-force
north of 29N and east of 65W this evening, quickly shifting
south-southeast through Tue morning. Meanwhile, high pressure
will prevail west of 70W through Tue night. A cold front will
move offshore of N Florida early Wed, slowly sagging south while
weakening through the end of the week.

$$
mt/jl
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