[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A reinforcing cold front will move across the central Atlantic
this week. Winds will reach gale force strength in the vicinity of
the front beginning on Tue at 00Z and continue through Tue at
18Z. The area affected will be mainly N of 25N between 35W-63W.
Seas in this area will range between 8-13 ft. Please refer to the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 02N32W to 04N43W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 07N between 15W-
29W. Scattered showers prevail along the remainder of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high pres centered over the W Atlantic near 33N75W. Moderate to
fresh E-SE flow dominates the basin along with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate most of the
Gulf region during the next several days producing mainly a
moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong
winds will pulse mainly across the SE and south-central Gulf,
including also the waters near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the
eastern Bay of Campeche through Mon night. A cold front is
forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Tue, and extend over northern
Florida and the NE Gulf on Wed before dissipating.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed from 20N80W to the 1008 mb
Panamanian low centered at 10N81W. An mid-level low centered over
W Cuba is enhancing scattered showers along the trough. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail over the Caribbean, pulsing to strong
within the Windward Passage, off the coast of Colombia, and off
the south-central coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 4-6 ft across the
basin, peaking at 7 ft in the areas of strongest winds.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the Caribbean will support
pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba,
Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near the coast of
Colombia over the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds will prevail this week, except gentle
winds in the SW Caribbean. Northerly swell may move into the
Tropical N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N50W to
26N67W. Moderate NW winds follow the front, with light to gentle
flow ahead of the front. Surface ridging is building in the wake
of the front across the western Atlantic, with a 1025 mb high
centered near 33N75W. A weak pre-frontal trough is analyzed
30N50W to 27N51W. To the E, a 1014 mb surface low is located near
24N44W with no significant convection. A 1016 mb high pressure is
centered at 23N32W. A second 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed
over the Canary Islands. Conditions across the tropical Atlantic
are generally quiescent, with gentle to moderate trades
prevailing. Trades are pulsing to fresh along the Greater
Antilles. Seas are 4-6 ft, locally 7 ft north of the cold front
and in the far eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located north of the
forecast area will support fresh to locally strong NE to E just
off Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward passage
through at least Mon night. The cold front currently extending
over the NE waters will be reinforcing tonight into Mon. This will
result in an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters,
particularly north of 22N between 55W and 70W beginning this
evening. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force behind the
front Mon evening through Tue. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft
are expected in the wake of the front, gradually subsiding by the
end of the week. Another cold front may move into the waters
offshore of NE Florida Wed, washing out along 27N by the end of
the week.

$$
ERA
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