[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Apr 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 04N24W to 02N32W to 04N43W.
Scattered strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 13W and
20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to
06N between 20W and 25W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted elsewhere within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the southeastern United States and
Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow dominates the
basin along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through at least Mon producing mainly a moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow. Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse
mainly across the SE Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula through
Mon night. A cold front may reach the NW Gulf on Tue, then wash
out over the basin through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed from 20N81W to the 1008 mb
Colombian/Panamanian low centered at 09N81W. An mid-level low
centered over W Cuba is enhancing showers and isolated
thunderstorms along the northern and central sections of the
trough. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the Caribbean,
pulsing to strong within the Windward Passage, off the coast of
Colombia, and off the south-central coast of Hispaniola. Seas are
4-6 ft across the basin, peaking at 7 ft in the areas of strongest
winds.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and off
the coast of Colombia over the next several days. Otherwise,
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail this week,
except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Northerly swell may move
into the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the TAFB waters at 31N55W and extends to
28N60W and then to 27N66W. Moderate NW winds follow the front,
with light to gentle flow ahead of the front. A weak pre-frontal
trough exists from 26N to 30N along 52W. Weak 1015 mb low
pressure is centered at 24N44W, with a weak surface trough
extending from the center to 29N47W. Another surface trough is
analyzed from 30N23W to 23N28W. 1017 mb high pressure is centered
at 22N32W. A second 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed over the
Canary Islands. Conditions across the tropical Atlantic are
generally quiescent, with gentle to moderate trades prevailing.
Trades are pulsing to fresh along the Greater Antilles. Seas are
4-6 ft, locally 7 ft north of the cold front and in the far
eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located north of the
forecast area will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
between the Bahamas and Cuba, including the Straits of Florida,
through early this week. A cold front will bring an increase in
winds and seas across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N
between 55W and 70W later today through at least Thu. Building
seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front,
gradually subsiding by the end of the week. Another cold front may
move into the waters offshore of NE Florida Wed, washing out
along 27N by the end of the week.

$$
Mahoney
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