[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near the border of Guinea-
Bissau and Guinea to 05N20W. An ITCZ continues from 05N20W through
02N30W to 02N44W. A surface trough is seen farther W, N of Sao
Luis, Brazil near 03N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present from 03N to 07N between 15W and 21W, and
from 02N to 04N between 22W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from the Brazilian coast northward to 08N between 35W and
48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge stretches from a 1027 mb high near the Georgia-S
Carolina border across Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico,
Mexico. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to
8 ft are found at the SE and S central Gulf, just N of W Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas
are present over the NE and E central Gulf. Moderate to fresh ESE
to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf. Patchy haze due to agricultural fires over S Mexico can
reduce visibility down to 5 sm in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through at least Mon, producing mainly a moderate to fresh
anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds will continue
to pulse mainly across the SE Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula
through Mon night. Hazy conditions remain possible over the Bay
of Campeche due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. A cold
front may reach the NW Gulf on Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Enhanced by a mid-level low just S of the Yucatan Channel,
convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel and NW basin, including
Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers are seen farther E, over
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong
ENE trades along with 5 to 7 ft seas are occurring near the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate E trades and seas of 2 to 4
ft are noted over the SW basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades
and seas of 5 to 6 ft are present across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea
will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of
Cuba and through the Windward Passage tonight into Sun morning.
Similar winds will pulse S of Hispaniola over the next several
days. Otherwise, the high pressure will support moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds through early next week, except
gentle winds for the SW Caribbean. Large northerly swell may move
into the N Tropical N Atlantic by the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A persistent mid-level trough runs southwestward from near the
Azores across 31N40W to N of Hispaniola at 20N72W. This feature
is inducing a series of surface troughs across the Atlantic from
20N to 31N between 25W and 60W, causing widely scattered moderate
convection in this area. Light to gentle variable winds along with
5 to 7 ft seas are also found in this area. Farther W, moderate to
fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are occurring from
the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 60W and the
Georgia/Florida coast. Despite light to gentle winds over the E
Atlantic, large northerly swell is maintaining 8 to 11 ft seas
near the Canary Islands, N of 25N between the NW African coast and
25W. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with seas at 5 to 7 ft
prevail across the tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located N of the
forecast area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds between
the Bahamas and Cuba, and the Straits of Florida through at least
Sun night. A cold front will bring an increase in winds and seas
across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N between 55W and
65W on Sun. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the
wake of the front. Another cold front may move into the waters
offshore of NE Florida Wed.

$$

Chan
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