[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near the border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 05N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. A
surface trough is analyzed along 46W and extends from near the
equator to 07N. Isolated moderate convection is found S of the
monsoon trough and E of 20W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 08N and between 24W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure system of 1027 mb is positioned over the
SE United States and dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions. However, low-level convergence
is generating some squally weather over the Florida Straits,
southeast and north-central Gulf. Surface observations and a
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to
fresh E-SE winds prevail across the basin, with the strongest
winds occurring in the E Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas of 5-8 ft
are prevalent in the Gulf, except for 2-5 ft in the E Bay of
Campeche and NE Gulf.

Haze due to agricultural fires over portions Mexico and Central
America is reducing visibilities as low as 3 nm in the western
Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through early next week producing mainly a moderate to
fresh anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds are still
expected over the eastern Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula
through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse across the
same areas during the evening and overnight hours Sun night and
Mon night. Hazy conditions are possible over the western Gulf due
to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trade wind convergence over the western Caribbean, especially in
the Gulf of Honduras, allows for scattered, fast-moving showers to
affect the region. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 19N87W
to the northern coast of Honduras as of 1500 UTC. A 1011 mb low
pressure is positioned near 10N81W, along a surface trough that
extends from the coast of Colombia to southern Costa Rica. A few
showers are seen near the trough and low pressure. Elsewhere,
fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. High pressure to the
north sustains fresh trades in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage
and offshore southern Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds are
found in the rest of the Caribbean basin. Seas of 4-6 ft are
present in the NW and central Caribbean, while 2-4 ft are noted
in the SW and E Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea
will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of
Cuba and through the Windward Passage during the evening hours
through today, then again early next week. Similar winds will
pulse south of Hispaniola through today. Otherwise, the high
pressure will support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
through early next week, except gentle in the SW Caribbean.
Large northerly swell may move into the northern Tropical N
Atlantic by the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, resulting is fairly
tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between a 1027
mb subtropical ridge over the SE United States and lower pressures
across the western Caribbean maintains moderate to fresh winds
over the waters west of 68W, except for fresh to strong trades
between the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba. Seas of 5-8 ft
are prevalent in the waters W of 68W. Recent scatterometer
satellite data depict a few weak surface troughs in the north-
central Atlantic and a weak 1015 mb low pressure near 23N46W. These
features are not producing any significant convection. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail in the central and eastern Atlantic.
Northerly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft N of 17N and between
60W and 25W. Stronger winds north of 31N in the NE Atlantic
result in a more robust northerly swell generating seas of 8-12
ft N of 25N and E of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, seas range
between 3 and 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located north of the
forecast area will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas south of 26N and west of 75W, including the Straits of
Florida through today. A cold front will bring an increase in
winds and seas across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N
between 55W and 65W on Sun. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are
expected in the wake of the front. Another cold front may move
into the waters offshore of NE Florida Wed.

$$
DELGADO
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