[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to northeast of the
coast of Brazil at the equator near 38W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted 00N to 03N between 17W and
20W, within 120 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 29W and 38W, and
south of 10N between 38W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong
winds prevail over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range, except 7
to 9 ft in the southeast Gulf through the Straits of Florida. Haze
due to agricultural fires over portions Mexico and Central
America is reducing visibilities as low as 3 nm in the western
Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through early next week producing mainly a moderate to
fresh anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds are still
expected over the eastern Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula
through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse across the
same areas during the evening and overnight hours Sun night and
Mon night. Hazy conditions are possible over the western Gulf due
to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the region. Moderate to locally
fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters, except fresh to
strong in the lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward
Passage. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range over the NW Caribbean
with 2 to 5 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee
of Cuba and through the Windward Passage during the evening hours
through today, then again early next week. Similar winds will
pulse south of Hispaniola through today. Otherwise, the high
pressure will support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
through early next week, except gentle in the SW Caribbean. Large
northerly swell may move into the northern Tropical N Atlantic by
the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging prevails over the waters west of 68W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
across the western Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh winds
over the waters west of 68W, except fresh to strong through and
west of the Bahamas through the Straits of Florida and near the
approach to the Windward Passage. Seas in the 5 to 8 ft range
prevail over the open waters west of 68W. A weak surface trough is
just to the east from 31N66W to 27N65W as noted in early
scatterometer data. Low pressure of 1015 mb is centered near
22.5N45.5W, Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of the low, with
seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. A surface trough extends from
28N38W to 20N39W to 13N38W, and a second trough extends from
29N34W to 23N32W. A weak 1018 mb high pressure area is centered
west of the Canary Islands near 27.5N23W. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft, prevail elsewhere, except
moderate to fresh winds from 14N to 22N between the coast of
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located north of the
forecast area will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
south of 26N and west of 75W, including the Straits of Florida
through today. A cold front will bring an increase in winds and
seas across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N between 55W
and 65W on Sun. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in
the wake of the front. Another cold front may move into the
waters offshore of NE Florida Wed.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net