[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from
05N19W, 04N25W, to the Equator along 37W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 90 nm to 270 nm to the
south of the ITCZ between 28W and 33W, from 04N to 06N between
41W and 43W, and from 05N to 08N between 48W and 51W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the area that
is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to SE
Louisiana, toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to inland
Mexico near 18N97W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 27N
southward from 90W eastward.

Fresh to locally strong winds are in the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. The wave heights range
from 4 feet to 7 feet.

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through early
next week producing mainly a moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow. However, fresh to strong winds are still expected in the
eastern Gulf, and near the Yucatan Peninsula, tonight through
Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse across the same
areas during the evening and overnight hours Sun night and Mon
night. Hazy conditions are possible in the western Gulf, due to
smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 10N81W, in broad
surface-to-low level cyclonic wind flow.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 75W
westward.

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 15N northward from
Hispaniola westward.

Moderate to locally fresh winds span the Caribbean Sea waters.
The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the NW Caribbean
Sea. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.
wind speeds and slower are near the second surface trough.

High pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba and
through the Windward Passage during the evening hours through
Sat, then again early next week. Similar winds will pulse south
of Hispaniola through Sat. Otherwise, the high pressure will
support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through early
next week, except gentle in the SW Caribbean. Large northerly
swell may move into the northern Tropical N Atlantic by
the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 66W/67W from 27N to
31N. Fresh N to NE winds are within 180 nm to the northwest and
west of the 66W/67W surface trough. Strong NE winds are in the
Straits of Florida between 79W and 81W. Fresh NE winds are
elsewhere from Cuba northward from the Bahamas westward and
northwestward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from
60W westward

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 23N45W. The wave heights
range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 20N northward between 20W and
60W. The comparatively highest wave heights are near 28N48W.
Fresh NE winds are from 300 nm to 600 nm of the center in the N
quadrant. Moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 20N northward
between 45W and 70W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet
from 20N southward from the eastern Caribbean Sea islands
eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are from 05N to
18N between 45W and 60W. Moderate NE winds are from 03N to 14N
between 30W and 40W.

One surface trough is along 37W/39W from 13N to 19N. Gentle
winds are within 180 nm on either side of the first surface
trough. A second surface trough is along 32W/34W from 25N to
28N. Fresh winds are within 920 nm to the southeast of the
second surface trough. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near
27N23W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from the
Canary Islands northward from 20W eastward.

High pressure located north of the forecast area will support
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas south of 26N and west of
75W, including the Straits of Florida through Sat. A cold front
will bring an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters,
particularly north of 22N between 55W and 65W on Sun. Building
seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front.
Another cold front may move into the waters offshore of NE
Florida Wed.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net