[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N16W, and to 03N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N18W, to the Equator along 20W, to 02S27W and
03S36W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within
180 nm of the coast of South America between 47W and 55W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the
area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico, to Mexico near 19N96W.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is inland in Mexico
from 20N to 23N between 98W and 100W. Isolated moderate is in
the western half of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Fresh to strong NE and E winds are from 18N to 29N between 77W
and 86W, covering parts of the Atlantic Ocean and Florida, in
the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea, and in the eastern
one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE-to-E winds are from
24N southward between 92W and 94W, in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. Fresh to moderate anticyclonic winds span the
remainder of the area. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 7
feet in the central Gulf of Mexico, and from 3 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere.

Smoke and haze, mainly due to agricultural fires, have been
reducing the visibilities in the Bay of Campeche, and along the
coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico.

High pressure extending from north of the region will support
fresh to strong E-NE winds over the eastern and south central
Gulf tonight through Sat night, including the Straits of Florida
and areas near the north and west coasts of the Yucatan
Peninsula. The strongest winds should occur tonight and Fri
night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail elsewhere.
Hazy conditions are possible in the western and central Gulf due
to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

One NE-to-SW surface trough is along 21N73W, to Haiti, to 17N74W
13N75W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in Haiti, and in the Windward Passage.

A second surface trough is along 13N80W 12N77W, to the coast of
Colombia along 75W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 14N southward from 70W westward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate covers the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Gentle wind speeds and slower are near the second surface trough.

Fresh to strong NE and E winds are from 18N to 29N between 77W
and 86W, covering parts of the Atlantic Ocean and Florida, in
the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea, and in the eastern
one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh wind speeds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The wave heights
range from 7 feet to 8 feet in the Yucatan Channel.
Precipitation: isolated moderate in the Yucatan Channel. The
wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

A strong high pressure located north of the region will support
fresh to locally strong ENE winds across the NW Caribbean, with
pulses of primarily strong ENE winds south of Cuba and in the
Windward Passage during the evening hours tonight through early
this weekend. Afterward, high pressure over the SE U.S. should
sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds Sun through early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N62W to 27N70W, to Andros Island
in the Bahamas. Strong NE winds are within 150 nm to the south
of the stationary front between 72W and 76W. Mostly fresh to
some strong winds are elsewhere from Cuba northward from 70W
westward. Strong NE winds are elsewhere on the northern side of
the stationary front. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 11
feet from 24N in the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. Fresh
to strong NE and E winds are from 18N to 29N between 77W and
86W, covering parts of the Atlantic Ocean and Florida, in the
northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea, and in the eastern
one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 50W and
70W.

A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 26N45W. A surface trough
curves away from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to: 29N40W
26N38W 23N40W 19N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 23N to 30N between 32W and 42W.
Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 20N northward between
30W and 50W, and within 100 nm on either side of the rest of the
surface trough. The wave heights range from 10 feet to 13 feet
within 330 nm to the north-northwest of the 1015 mb low pressure
center. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet, to the
north of the line 23N50W 23N45W 31N30W. The wave heights range
from 7 feet to 8 feet within 180 nm of the coast of Africa from
19N to 24N. Fresh northerly winds are within 275 nm of the coast
of Africa from 17N to 23N; and within 150 nm of the coast of
Africa from 12N to 15N. The wave heights range from 8 feet to 9
feet between the Canary Islands and Africa. Strong northerly
winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Africa from 30N to 32N.
The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean. Strong winds are within 380 nm of the 1015
mb low pressure center in the NW quadrant. Fresh NE winds are
from 05N to 12N between 35W and 44W; and from 15N northward from
50W westward.

A stationary front extends from 31N63W to 24N77W. It is expected
to dissipate on Fri as it retreats slowly northward. High
pressure located off New England will sustain fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas to the west of a line from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas through early this weekend,
including the Straits of Florida. Winds and seas will diminish
this Sun into early next week. A cold front is expected to enter
the NE waters between 55W-65W on Sun, and extend from 27N55W to
31N66W by early Mon. Strong to near gale force NW winds are
likely to the north of the front, along with building seas to
the east of 65W.

$$
mt
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