[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212155 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 02S25W. The ITCZ continues from 02S25W to 03S40W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 02N west of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large surface ridge extends from 1037 mb high pressure centered
off the coast of New England through the Lower Mississippi Valley
and into Texas. A recent scatterometer satellite pass shows this
is supporting fresh to strong winds over the southeast and south-
central Gulf, where seas approaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds and 5 to 7 ft wave heights are noted elsewhere. A few
showers are evident just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke and
haze mainly due to agricultural are reducing visibility over the
Bay of Campeche and along the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and
Tampico.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong E-NE winds over the
eastern and south-central Gulf will continue tonight through Sat
night, including the Straits of Florida and areas near the north
and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula. The strongest winds
should occur tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions are will continue to
be possible over the southwest Gulf due to smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of surface trough extend from eastern Cuba to near San
Andres Island in the southwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean
west of the troughs. Gentle to moderate E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted elsewhere, except for light breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
over the far southwest Caribbean, south of 12N. No significant
showers or thunderstorms are noted over the Caribbean at this
time.

For the forecast, strong high pressure located off New England
will support fresh to locally strong ENE winds across the NW
Caribbean, with pulses of primarily strong ENE winds south of Cuba
and in the Windward Passage during the evening hours tonight
through early this weekend. Afterward, high pressure over the SE
U.S. should sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds Sun through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 31N62W through the central Bahamas.
Buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass from 15 UTC
showed a large area of fresh to strong NE winds north of the
front. Wave heights are 7 to 10 ft north of the front over open
waters. Farther east, a 1014 mb low pressure area is centered near
27N44W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted within 120 nm in
the northwest semicircle of the low, with seas estimated to be 8
to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are
evident elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, strong to near-gale
force winds persist off Morocco with 8 to 10 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to dissipate
on Fri as it retreats slowly northward. High pressure located off
New England will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas
to the west of a line from Bermuda to the central Bahamas through
early this weekend, including the Straits of Florida. Winds and
seas will diminish this Sun into early next week. A cold front is
expected to enter the NE waters between 55W-65W on Sun, and extend
from 27N55W to 31N66W by early Mon. Strong to near gale force NW
winds are likely to the north of the front, along with building
seas to the east of 65W.

$$
Christensen
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